Russia's self-inflicted decline brings burdens for citizens

Global Watch | 2026-02-05

Russia's involvement in Ukraine is often viewed through the lens of military posturing: missiles, nuclear threats and the protracted conflict. But the true cost of Moscow's strategy is increasingly evident in its domestic vulnerabilities --budget strain, labor shortages and mounting pressure on households.

The war has eroded Russia's strength, burdening its people with rising costs and diminishing prospects.

Russia's GDP growth slowed dramatically to 1.1% in Q2 2025 and dropped further to 0.6% in Q3 -- the weakest quarterly performance since 2023.

As Elina Ribakova and Lucas Risinger of the Atlantic Council noted in a December 2025 report, "Overall growth, however, is slowing markedly in 2025 as Russia is increasingly feeling the pressure of 'guns versus butter.'"

Compounding risks

Russia increasingly relies on external networks for survival because it cannot produce everything needed to sustain the war at home.

At the same time, sanctions have pushed procurement underground -- through intermediaries and re-export schemes. The result is a far more brittle system: supply chains are fragmented, costs have risen sharply and risks continue to compound.

This combination underscores Russia's growing weakness -- not from external destruction, but from the self-inflicted toll of Putin's choices.

As the war's sustainment demands grow, China has become a pivotal yet precarious pillar of Russia's strategy.

Moscow's ability to continue the conflict hinges on importing critical industrial and dual-use goods -- electronics, machine tools, micro-components and technologies that can be repurposed for military production.

The battlefield relies more on these inputs for drones, repairs, communications and scaling production than on showcase weapons. Russia's reliance on Chinese manufacturing amplifies vulnerabilities through convoluted paths.

That dynamic is complicated by regional tensions, including deepening Russia-North Korea defense ties that are raising concerns in Beijing.

As China bolsters its own nuclear arsenal, Russia's missile reliability issues highlight a lopsided interdependence -- one that exposes Moscow's deepening reliance on outsiders amid its own technological and economic strains.

Ribakova describes the Russia-China dynamic as "symbiotic but deeply asymmetrical," with China becoming "an indispensable partner for Russia, providing the markets and goods Moscow needs most."

Russia also turns to Arab and Gulf hubs for finance, logistics and re-exports.

These are mostly transactional deals, offering fleeting flexibility to dodge pressure while partners seek profits. However, this mask is decaying, with Russia's oil and gas revenues falling 24% in 2025 to a five-year low.

Domestic cost

Beyond Asia, the Kremlin's war choices weaponize economic ties -- at a steep domestic cost.

In South America and other commodity hubs, fertilizer and energy dependencies can offer leverage abroad, but disruptions often rebound back into Russia through higher import costs, reduced output and sharper price shocks.

That exposure is now showing up at home. Real household incomes are sliding as wage growth weakens, while war spending crowds out civilian priorities.

Ribakova and Risinger note that military recruitment is compounding the strain by deepening labor shortages and widening regional disparities.

Ordinary Russians absorb the fallout through supply disruptions and persistent uncertainty.

The economic pressure is only part of the toll.

Russia has seen an estimated brain drain of roughly 650,000 departures since the invasion, accelerating demographic decline and hollowing out capacity.

The human cost is even starker -- exceeding 163,600 confirmed deaths, according to Mediazona, with some Western estimates suggesting up to about 250,000 killed and total casualties surpassing 1 million.

Putin's approval remains in the mid-80s in polling through 2025, buoyed by propaganda. But the longer the war continues, the greater the risk that casualties and stagnation will break through the narrative and erode support.

Russia's predicament is self-sabotage under Putin.

It clings to outside sourcing to sustain the war at the expense of its people's well-being. The true risk is internal collapse -- stagnating growth, depleted funds, intensifying budget pressures and a weary population.