Russia's triple demographic blow: war, mortality and the erosion of national power

Global Watch | 2025-10-29

Russia has been grappling with a demographic crisis for decades. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country has faced persistently low fertility rates and alarmingly high mortality rates, particularly among men. This chronic issue has long undermined Russia's economic and social stability.

However, the war in Ukraine has dramatically worsened this decline, draining the most valuable segment of the population -- young, healthy men -- and leaving the nation economically constrained and increasingly dependent on foreign powers.

As the Kremlin pursues its geopolitical ambitions, the demographic toll of war threatens to erode Russia's long-term national power, transforming it into a regional power with limited global influence.

The war in Ukraine has created an acute manpower vacuum in Russia. High military casualties, estimated in the tens of thousands, have disproportionately affected young, working-age men -- the demographic backbone of the economy.

War and the workforce drain

Compounding this loss is the mass emigration of educated professionals, many of whom fled the country to avoid conscription or to escape the economic and political instability caused by the war. This "brain drain" has left critical sectors, such as technology, healthcare and engineering, severely understaffed.

The depletion of human capital is already impairing Russia's economy. Productivity and innovation are stagnating as the workforce shrinks, while the government diverts resources to the military-industrial complex to sustain its war effort. Civilian sectors, including healthcare and education, are being starved of funding, leading to long-term stagnation and rising inflation.

Even before the war, Russia faced a significant mortality gap, with high death rates among men due to alcohol abuse, smoking and preventable diseases. The battlefield losses have only exacerbated this imbalance, further distorting the gender and age structure of the population. The result is a demographic crisis that will take generations to recover from -- if recovery is even possible.

Russia's demographic decline is also reshaping its military and geopolitical strategy. The chronic loss of young men makes it increasingly difficult for Russia to sustain a large, globally deployable conventional force. While the Kremlin has relied on conscription and private military contractors to fill the ranks, these measures are stopgaps that cannot address the long-term manpower shortage.

As its conventional military power diminishes, Russia is leaning more heavily on its nuclear arsenal as the ultimate guarantor of its security and global status. This reliance on strategic deterrence raises the stakes in any conflict, as Moscow's ability to project conventional power wanes.

Economically, Russia's demographic and geopolitical vulnerabilities are forcing it into a junior partnership with China. The Kremlin's need for foreign investment and economic stability has made it increasingly dependent on Beijing, trading long-term strategic autonomy for short-term economic support.

A nation on the decline

At the same time, Russia faces an internal dilemma: to address labor shortages, it has turned to large-scale immigration from Central Asia. While this helps fill gaps in the workforce, it also creates social and political tensions within a country already grappling with nationalism and xenophobia.

Russia's demographic crisis is, in many ways, a self-inflicted wound. The Kremlin's decision to pursue a costly and protracted war in Ukraine has accelerated a trend that was already bleak. While Russia will remain a major military threat due to its nuclear arsenal and energy leverage, its capacity to project and sustain global conventional power is steadily eroding.

In the long term, Russia's demographic and economic weaknesses will solidify its status as a regional power, capable of influencing its immediate neighbors but increasingly reliant on external partners like China to maintain its global relevance.

The war in Ukraine may have been intended to secure Russia's place as a great power, but it has instead hastened its decline.