Strategic Affairs
The demographic wall: Why China's population collapse threatens its global ambitions
For the first time in decades, China's population is shrinking, and it is aging at one of the fastest rates in human history.
![Senior citizens relax at a park on Lindai Road in Fuyang City, East China, on January 16, 2025. [Costfoto/NurPhoto via AFP]](/gc7/images/2025/10/07/52321-rlf-370_237.webp)
Global Watch |
China, long seen as the rising superpower poised to challenge US global dominance, is facing an unprecedented demographic crisis that could derail its ambitions.
For the first time in decades, China's population is shrinking, and it is aging at one of the fastest rates in human history. This decline is occurring years ahead of official projections, according to Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), marking the end of an era of seemingly unstoppable growth.
This demographic shift represents the single greatest long-term threat to the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) legitimacy and its goal of surpassing the United States as the world's leading superpower. As the working-age population dwindles and the elderly population soars, China faces a dangerous "window of vulnerability" -- a narrowing timeframe in which to achieve its strategic objectives before its demographic collapse undermines its economic and geopolitical power.
For decades, China's vast and inexpensive labor force powered its rise as the "world’s factory." However, this engine of growth is now sputtering. The working-age population, which peaked around 2014, is shrinking rapidly, the NBS reported. This is driving up labor costs and eroding China's competitive edge in manufacturing. This demographic drag is already slowing GDP growth, which fell to its lowest levels in decades in recent years. the NBS said.
The economic challenges don't stop there. By 2050, China's Old-Age Dependency Ratio -- the number of retirees per working-age individual -- is expected to skyrocket, according to the UN's World Population Prospects report. This will place an unsustainable burden on the shrinking workforce and the state-funded pension system, threatening to destabilize the social contract between the CCP and its citizens.
PLA challenges
At the same time, an aging society may struggle to maintain the high rates of innovation needed to transition from a manufacturing-based economy to a high-tech, service-oriented one. Older populations tend to be more risk-averse, potentially stifling the entrepreneurial spirit and technological breakthroughs that China needs to sustain its economic momentum.
China's demographic decline also has profound implications for its geopolitical strategy and national security. One of the most concerning theories is the "window of vulnerability." As China's economic and demographic power wanes after 2030, the CCP may feel an urgent need to achieve its long-standing goal of "reunification" with Taiwan while it still has the capacity to do so. This could increase the likelihood of a military confrontation in the near to medium term, with global consequences.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) also faces long-term challenges. A shrinking pool of young, able-bodied citizens will make it harder to maintain the size and quality of its military forces. While China is investing heavily in advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and drones to offset this manpower shortage, these systems are expensive and may not fully compensate for the demographic shortfall.
Adding to the instability is the lingering gender imbalance caused by the "one-child policy." Decades of selective abortions favoring male children have left China with millions more men than women, creating a generation of "leftover" bachelors, according to NBS census data. This imbalance could fuel social unrest, particularly among young men who feel excluded from traditional family structures.
Despite the CCP's efforts to reverse the trend -- such as relaxing the one-child policy and introducing pro-natalist incentives -- these measures have largely failed. Economic pressures, including the high cost of living and career demands, continue to discourage young couples from having more children. The fertility rate remains well below the replacement level, the NBS said, signaling that the demographic decline is likely irreversible.
China now faces a stark choice: Accept long-term stagnation as its population ages and shrinks or take greater short-term risks to lock in its power before the demographic cliff becomes insurmountable.
The decisions made in the coming years will not only shape China's future but also have profound implications for the global order.