Energy shocks redraw supply security

Global Watch | 2026-06-13

The energy shock that began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered a new phase.

Europe's direct dependence on Russian gas and crude has fallen sharply. But the wider market is now being tested by disrupted Gulf exports, tight shipping routes and renewed pressure on inventories, a pattern that has exposed "fragile energy interdependence".

The issue is no longer only whether one supplier can use energy as leverage. It is whether importers have enough routes, reserves and political coordination to manage several crises at once.

Europe absorbs pressure

Europe has reduced the direct exposure that made it vulnerable in 2022.

Under the REPowerEU framework, Russian gas fell from 45 percent of EU imports in 2021 to 12 percent in 2025. Russian crude fell from 20 percent of EU crude imports in 2022 to about 2 percent in 2025. Russian coal has been removed from the bloc's supply mix.

That shift did not make Europe immune to energy shocks. It made the shock less politically direct, while reinforcing the broader argument that imported fossil-fuel reliance remains a source of energy insecurity.

Moscow can still benefit from price spikes and redirect barrels to buyers in Asia. But it has far less ability to pressure Europe through a single pipeline relationship.

The Hormuz disruption has created a different test.

The International Energy Agency said in its May oil market report that global oil supply losses since February had reached 12.8 million barrels per day. Output from Gulf producers affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure was 14.4 million barrels per day below levels seen before the latest Gulf conflict.

The agency also said cumulative Gulf supply losses had exceeded 1 billion barrels.

That scale has made market adaptation visible. Atlantic Basin exports have risen, strategic and commercial stocks have been drawn down, and refiners have adjusted runs.

The IEA said supply growth expectations from the Americas were revised higher. Exports from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Venezuela also increased as buyers searched for replacement barrels.

Europe has so far avoided an immediate jet fuel shortage.

EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told Reuters there were "no signs" of a shortage in the coming months, with U.S. and Nigerian supplies helping fill part of the gap.

But he also warned that the situation would become "very difficult" if Middle Eastern supplies remained disrupted toward year-end.

That distinction matters. Diversification has bought time. It has not removed price exposure.

Chokepoints expose limits

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk.

Reuters reported June 5 that Brent was trading near $95 a barrel as oil steadied after Oman said operations at its Mina al Fahal port were proceeding normally.

The same report noted that traffic through Hormuz, where about a fifth of global oil passes, remained limited as U.S.-Iran peace talks dragged on.

The market is therefore calmer than the worst supply numbers might suggest. But it is not stable.

Commerzbank analysts told Reuters that Brent's gains had been capped by inventories, rerouted exports and weaker demand. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore described the outlook as clouded by "a tangled web of headlines and counter-headlines."

Russia and Iran show how disruption can cut both ways.

Russian crude continues to move, especially toward Asia. But it is more dependent on a narrower set of buyers and discount-driven flows.

Iran's crude and condensate exports fell below 300,000 barrels per day in May, the lowest level in at least six years, according to Reuters, which cited shipping data and analysts.

Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman pointed to Hormuz disruption, the U.S. naval blockade and reluctance among shipowners, insurers and counterparties to take security risks.

The United States has helped fill part of the global gap. But that too carries strain.

Reuters reported June 5 that U.S. crude exports reached a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May. At the same time, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell to 22.4 million barrels as of May 29.

Energy Aspects analyst Jeremy Irwin warned that operational problems can emerge if Cushing drops below 20 million barrels.

That is the current lesson of the crisis.

Flexible producers, emergency stocks and rerouted trade can soften a shock. They are not a permanent substitute for secure transit routes.

The longer Hormuz remains restricted, the more the burden shifts from diplomacy and logistics to prices, demand cuts and weaker growth.

Energy security is now measured less by access to cheap supply in normal times than by the ability to keep systems functioning when normal routes fail.

Europe learned that through Russia. The Hormuz crisis is now testing the wider market in the same way.