From Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz: how war and climate threaten global food security

By Murad Rakhimov | 2026-06-07

War and climate change are rapidly exposing the weaknesses of the global food supply chain and raising the risk of mass hunger in the near future.

The current war in the Middle East has introduced a host of new risks, disrupting the flow of oil and fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz -- a critical artery for the global agri-food supply.

According to World Bank data, by the end of March, the grain price index climbed 7% compared to December -- wheat rose 13%, corn 4%, and rice 5%. Currently, corn and wheat prices stand 20% and 7% higher, respectively, than in January 2020.

According to UN World Food Programme projections, the Iran conflict could plunge an additional 45 million people into severe hunger by mid-2026.

From Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz

Before the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine accounted for roughly 10% of global wheat exports, 15% of corn exports, and over 45% of sunflower oil exports. International organizations estimate that Ukrainian agriculture fed approximately 400 million people worldwide.

Viktoria Pavlovska and her husband previously had farmed about 3,000 hectares of land in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. With stable yields, the family planned to expand the business and set up their own agricultural processing plant.

Those plans collapsed following the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Part of the Kharkiv region fell under Russian occupation, and the family’s farmland became a combat zone. Pavlovska said Russian troops destroyed their agricultural machinery, warehouses, seed stock, and fertilizer supplies. Although the couple returned to the farm after Ukrainian forces liberated most of the Kharkiv region in September 2022, they could not restore production.

“The damage totaled about $5 million. We were never able to restore the farm. In the end, we went bankrupt,” Viktoria said.

Consequently, at the end of last year, the family had no choice but to sell the land and move abroad.

Their story is just one of many examples of how the war has dealt a heavy blow to Ukraine's agricultural sector, particularly in front-line and occupied regions.

Pavlo Koval, an agricultural policy expert and director general of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, notes that the 2022 blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports sent a clear signal to global markets about the vulnerability of the modern food supply system.

Simultaneous spikes in the prices of grain, energy, fertilizers, and transport immediately affected countries across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

The sweeping impact of the war on Ukrainian agriculture is hard to overstate. Various estimates suggest that around 5 million hectares of farmland became inaccessible due to occupation, landmines, and active combat.

Agricultural infrastructure also suffered severe damage, with grain elevators, warehouses, export terminals, and transport hubs left damaged or destroyed.

According to international estimates, the total direct and indirect losses to Ukrainian agriculture are already approaching $70 billion.

Food security

“The main lesson of the war in Ukraine is that food security can no longer be viewed in isolation from general security issues. Today, food security is determined not just by the harvest, but by the ability to produce goods, store them, deliver them to consumers, and ensure the resilience of the entire supply chain,” Pavlo Koval said.

In the 21st century, food is becoming not just an economic commodity, but a strategic factor in international stability.

More than 87 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa already face hunger, while acute food insecurity is projected to affect 52 million people in Western and Central Africa by mid-2026. Furthermore, conflict in the Middle East could push an additional 45 million people to the brink of starvation at the same time.

According to political scientist Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence center, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drastically cut fertilizer exports to the global market. At the same time, skyrocketing oil and gas prices drove up production costs across the entire global economy, sending food prices soaring.

“The chronic nature of this crisis reflects the glaring, persistent inequality between economically advanced nations and the Global South,” Ilkhamov said.

Koval emphasizes that these overlapping crises prove the international community that food security begins far beyond agricultural fields. Its foundation now rests on secure transport logistics, reliable critical infrastructure, and the willingness of nations to maintain international cooperation even during deep, systemic crises.

“This is precisely why restoring Ukrainian agriculture matters not only for Ukraine or Europe,” Koval concludes. “It is a vital part of strengthening global food security as a whole.”

Climate change

While conflict is the source of short-term shocks to the system, climate change remains the primary, long-term driver of acute food shortages.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report "State of the Global Climate in 2025" notes that the Earth is undergoing an accelerated warming phase, threatening ecosystems, food security, and global economic stability.

The years 2015-2025 were the warmest since record-keeping began in 1980 with oceans warming rapidly and weather patterns becoming more extreme.

The WMO report explains that due to persistent atmospheric CO2 levels and the thermal inertia of the oceans, many already-induced climate changes, such as sea-level rise and glacier melt, are considered irreversible on a human timescale.

“2024 was the warmest year on record, with the average global temperature approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900),” said Vadim Sokolov, vice-president of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage.