Water crisis in Uzbekistan reflects growing risk of future global conflict

By Murad Rakhimov | 2026-06-07

Experts increasingly warn that water will be a primary source of armed conflict in the near future.

The UN projects that water shortages could affect six billion people by 2050.

Today, 50 countries have at least 75% of their territory lying within international river basins—regions that are home to more than 40% of the global population.

A look at what is happening in Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, reflects this global trend.

Climate change and governance

Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence center, considers the water situation in the southern part of Central Asia critical, noting that it worsens with each passing year.

He points to three fundamental factors driving this trend.

"First, there is the effect of global warming, which, according to the International Meteorological Organization, is progressing in our region at twice the global rate," the expert said.

This trend primarily accelerates the melting of mountain glaciers. Seasonally, melting now begins in early spring, triggering flood and mudflow risks in lowland areas while leaving very little water for the peak summer season, when agricultural demand for irrigation surges.

"We have already lost 30% to 40% of our mountain glaciers since 1957. Furthermore, about 60% of river runoff depends on mountain snowpack, the volume of which has shrunk by 40%," said Vadim Sokolov, head of the Agency for Project Implementation of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) in Uzbekistan, and vice-president of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage.

The other two factors involve governance.

According to Ilkhamov, in Uzbekistan, where agriculture consumes 90% of water resources, farmers still lack full economic freedom in the cotton sector. As a result, they have neither the financial capacity nor the incentive to invest in drip irrigation, a technology that would significantly improve water conservation.

Begging for water

In the Kuva District of Uzbekistan’s Fergana Region, 68-year-old farmer Zamirakhon Nuralieva has spent nearly 50 years working the land. For her, farming is not just a profession, but her life's purpose. She previously cultivated cotton and wheat across 100 hectares.

According to Nuralieva, water shortages and excessive heat used to leave her cotton fields completely parched. At times, she was forced to chase after officials just to beg for water.

"I begged for help, I cried. Only then did they finally give us water. They said, 'Help this woman, four tons of her cotton are burning up right now,'" the farmer said.

This struggle ultimately drove her to abandon her farm's cotton and wheat in favor of fruit.

Today, her 40-hectare orchard grows pomegranates, cherries, and other fruits, with drip irrigation serving as the primary tool to keep the trees alive.

According to Nuralieva, water problems have never been worse. Water once flowed freely through the irrigation ditches, allowing fields to be watered without issue.

Now, every single drop is a struggle.

To save water, Nuralieva switched to a drip irrigation system. Financing the project herself, she dug a 30-meter well, installed pumps, and built a dedicated reservoir to store water. Today, water travels 13 kilometers to reach her farm.

Distributing water across large areas presents an immense challenge. Before the water ever reaches her plot, hundreds of other growers upstream tap into it. This chronic shortage often means sleepless nights. When the water finally comes, the entire family heads to the fields to make every minute count.

"There is no time for sleep. My children and I go out into the fields at night. Everyone puts on a headlamp and starts watering. When the water is running, you cannot afford to miss your chance," she said.

Open conflicts

Between 1950 and 2000 alone, more than 500 territorial disputes over water erupted worldwide, with several escalating into armed conflicts.

This troubling trend has persisted into the 21st century. Following the Middle East, the epicenter of water tension is Central Asia. The region is already reeling from the disappearance of the Aral Sea, which has shrunk by 90% since 1964.

The Amu Darya, the region's largest river, is drying up, triggering an unprecedented phenomenon: the mass migration of farmers.

Over the past 40 years, per capita water availability in Central Asia has plummeted more than threefold, dropping from 8,400 to 2,500 cubic meters per year. This sharp decline transforms water scarcity into one of the gravest threats to the region's economic development, according to a report by the Washington-based think tank the New Lines Institute published in February 2026.

On May 31, 2020, a clash erupted in the Sokh District of Uzbekistan’s Fergana Region—an Uzbek exclave surrounded by Kyrgyz territory—over the ownership of a local water spring.

"An argument over claims that the water source belonged to one side escalated into a conflict," the Kyrgyz news outlet Bugun 24 reported.

The 2022 protocol signed by both nations regarding the delimitation and demarcation of the state border, which transferred control of the Andijan (Kempir-Abad) Reservoir to Uzbekistan, also triggered a wave of protests in Kyrgyzstan.

In May 2023, a dispute over water resources between Iran and the Afghan Taliban fueled an already volatile regional situation. Clashes broke out between the armed forces of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Iranian border guards. According to media reports, both sides quickly moved to de-escalate after a brief skirmish. However, the threat of renewed conflict persists, carrying severe consequences for both nations and the broader region.

A coming crisis

Today, Afghanistan is building the Qosh Tepa irrigation canal, a project that will divert approximately 10 cubic kilometers of water—roughly 20% of the total flow—from the Amu Darya River each year. This crisis will arrive by 2028, when the canal becomes fully operational.

According to analyst Alisher Ilkhamov, Uzbekistan appears entirely unprepared. While Tashkent offers to help Kabul line the canal bed with concrete to prevent water from seeping into the soil, 70% of Uzbekistan’s own irrigation canals still lack concrete lining.

"Uzbekistan is completely failing to manage water conservation," Ilkhamov noted. "It has neither freed farmers from the burden of forced cotton cultivation for monopolies—operating as clusters—nor invested adequately in concrete-lining its own irrigation canals. Consequently, a severe water crisis in the country is inevitable in the coming years."

Vadim Sokolov warns that water could trigger a major interstate crisis in the region unless nations deploy water diplomacy mechanisms.

"Nations must view sovereignty as a responsibility for basin sustainability. Against the backdrop of climate change, this reality demands a solution to a complex puzzle: ensuring enough water for upstream and downstream regions, hydropower and irrigation, and the natural environment that sustains the entire water cycle," Sokolov said.