The impossible logistics of crossing the Taiwan Strait

Global Watch | 2025-12-03

(This is the second of a five-part series of articles exploring how China may be preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan -- from covert militarization and invasion logistics to cognitive warfare, shipbuilding power and the global stakes of a showdown.)

Military historians often cite the D-Day landings of 1944 as the gold standard for amphibious invasions. The Allied forces moved 150,000 troops across the English Channel in a logistical masterpiece.

However, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would dwarf that 1944 operation in scale and complexity, presenting logistical challenges that many experts believe are beyond the PLA's current capabilities -- unless the shadow navy plays a pivotal role.

To conquer Taiwan, an island of 23 million people with a well-trained military and mountainous terrain, experts estimate China would need to land between 300,000 and 1 million troops. Unlike the English Channel, the Taiwan Strait is a 100-mile-wide expanse notorious for its treacherous currents, high winds and frequent typhoons, earning it the nickname "black ditch."

A Reuters investigation highlights a critical innovation designed to address these challenges: floating pier systems. These modular, semi-submersible structures can be assembled off a beachhead, allowing large commercial freighters and Ro-Ro ferries to dock offshore and offload heavy equipment without entering a harbor. This technology is essential, as Taiwan is expected to scuttle its ports or defend them heavily during an invasion.

Floating piers offer a lifeline for the PLA's logistical operations, enabling the "second wave" of supplies -- fuel, ammunition and food -- to reach troops ashore.

Timing, weather

However, they are also a fragile solution. The investigation draws parallels to the US military's struggles with temporary piers off Gaza, which were repeatedly dismantled by bad weather. In the volatile Taiwan Strait, relying on such systems is a high-stakes gamble.

The logistical challenges extend beyond infrastructure. Even with the shadow navy, the PLA's current lift capacity is estimated to support only 20,000 troops in the initial assault. Civilian vessels are intended to bridge this gap, but coordinating a mixed fleet of military and civilian captains under fire presents significant risks. Differences in communication systems, training standards and operational protocols could lead to chaos during critical moments.

Timing and weather further complicate the invasion scenario. The Taiwan Strait's unpredictable conditions could delay operations, disrupt supply chains and expose the fleet to counterattacks.

"Once that armor gets ashore, it only has maybe two days before it starts running out of stuff," former US naval intelligence officer J. Michael Dahm was citing as saying in the Reuters report.

Despite these challenges, the shadow navy provides China with a unique advantage. By repurposing civilian vessels, the PLA can rapidly expand its invasion fleet without the need for costly military landing craft. This strategy leverages China's industrial dominance, where shipyards produce commercial vessels at an unparalleled scale.

However, the reliance on civilian ships also exposes vulnerabilities. These vessels lack the armor and defensive systems of military ships, making them easy targets for Taiwan's asymmetric defenses. Mobile anti-ship missiles and artillery could inflict devastating losses on the shadow navy, turning the logistical advantage into a liability.

In conclusion, the logistical hurdles of a Taiwan invasion are immense, but the shadow navy offers a potential solution. By integrating civilian assets into military operations, China is attempting to overcome the limitations of its amphibious capabilities.

Yet, the success of this strategy hinges on precise coordination, favorable weather and the ability to withstand Taiwan's defenses -- a gamble that could determine the outcome of the conflict.