Strategic ambiguity no more: The global stakes of a Taiwan conflict

Global Watch | 2025-12-24

(This is the last of a five-part series of articles exploring how China may be preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan -- from covert militarization and invasion logistics to cognitive warfare, shipbuilding power and the global stakes of a showdown.)

China's mobilization of its shadow navy is not an isolated development -- it is the physical manifestation of a geopolitical collision course between the world's two superpowers.

As highlighted in a recent Reuters investigation, Beijing's quest to take over Taiwan has become the central gravity well of the Asia-Pacific region, drawing the United States, Japan and the Philippines into preparations for a potentially catastrophic showdown.

For decades, the United States adhered to a policy of "strategic ambiguity," deliberately refusing to clarify whether it would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion.

However, the rise of China's shadow navy and Beijing's increasingly aggressive rhetoric have eroded this policy. Former President Joe Biden has publicly stated on multiple occasions that US forces would defend Taiwan, signaling a significant shift in Washington’s stance.

This hardening of resolve has been mirrored in Beijing's actions. While President Xi Jinping continues to emphasize "peaceful reunification" in public speeches, the PLA's military drills and naval expansion suggest a different timeline. The commissioning of the Fujian, an 80,000-ton aircraft carrier, and the integration of civilian vessels into military exercises indicate that China is preparing for the possibility of forceful reunification.

The stakes of a Taiwan conflict extend far beyond the island's sovereignty.

Taiwan is a critical node in the global economy, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which powers everything from smartphones to advanced military systems.

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not only disrupt global supply chains but also shift the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, potentially supplanting the United States as the dominant force.

However, the risks for Beijing are equally significant. A failed invasion could destabilize the Communist Party’s grip on power, trigger widespread economic turmoil, and provoke a military response from the United States and its allies.

Global implications

China's shadow navy, while innovative, is not invulnerable. Civilian vessels lack the defensive capabilities of military ships, making them susceptible to Taiwan’s asymmetric defenses.

Taiwan's response to these developments has been one of cautious vigilance.

Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized the importance of monitoring civilian vessels and preparing contingency plans to counter the shadow navy. Taiwan’s military has also invested in mobile anti-ship missile systems and other asymmetric capabilities designed to exploit the vulnerabilities of civilian ships.

The shadow navy also serves as a barometer for the likelihood of war. As long as these vessels remain on their commercial routes, the status quo holds.

However, the summer exercises in Guangdong have demonstrated that the mechanism to transform trade ships into warships is operational and ready. The "Red Horizon" is no longer a distant theoretical threat -- it is being rehearsed in real-time.

The geopolitical implications of a Taiwan conflict are immense. A successful invasion would redefine the 21st century, establishing China as the dominant power in Asia and challenging the US-led international order.

Conversely, a failed invasion could destabilize the region and trigger a global economic crisis.

In conclusion, the shadow navy represents both a tactical innovation and a strategic gamble. By leveraging civilian vessels, China has created a flexible and cost-effective invasion fleet.

However, the vulnerabilities of these ships and the risks of escalation highlight the precarious nature of Beijing's strategy. As the world watches the shadow navy’s maneuvers, the stakes of a Taiwan conflict continue to rise, forcing nations to confront the reality of a potential showdown.