What's actually happening in the Red Sea

Global Watch | 2026-01-13

Since November 2023, the Houthi movement in Yemen has conducted a maritime pressure campaign in the Red Sea, consistently targeting commercial shipping in one of the world's most vital trade corridors.

While these attacks are often framed as ideological or symbolic, their operational logic is deeply strategic. The Red Sea facilitates approximately 12-15% of global trade, including critical energy supplies and container traffic connecting Asia and Europe.

Even limited disruptions in this corridor can raise shipping insurance costs, force rerouting and slow supply chains.

The Houthis do not need to completely shut down the Red Sea to achieve their objectives; they only need to make it unreliable. That is precisely what they are accomplishing.

Pressure without commitment

Despite alarmist narratives, this is not the beginning of a broader Middle Eastern conflict. No regional power involved stands to gain from escalation.

The Houthis' actions align closely with Iran's interests, which have long relied on proxy pressure rather than direct confrontation. This approach allows Iran to exert influence while keeping escalation controlled and deniable.

The attacks themselves are intentionally limited, avoiding sustained naval battles, territorial occupation or state-to-state warfare. This strategy reflects pressure without commitment, a hallmark of proxy operations designed to destabilize without provoking full-scale retaliation.

The international response has been restrained, focusing on defensive measures such as ship escorts, interceptions and intelligence coordination. The goal has been to protect freedom of navigation while avoiding actions that could widen the conflict.

This restraint is not a sign of weakness but a calculated effort to deny the attackers the narrative they seek. Overreaction would validate the perception that the Red Sea is spiraling into chaos, whereas measured responses undermine that narrative and maintain stability.

The psychological dimension of this campaign is as significant as the physical attacks.

Every intercepted drone, near-miss or rerouted ship is amplified across social media and news outlets, often stripped of context. This creates a perception of chaos that far exceeds the reality on the water.

Such amplification is deliberate, aiming to dominate attention rather than territory. When shipping companies alter routes and markets react, the strategy has already succeeded even if no ship is sunk.

Uncertainty

Looking ahead to the future, the Red Sea is likely to remain disrupted but not closed.

Attacks will persist at a level designed to increase costs without provoking full retaliation. International forces will continue to focus on containment rather than escalation. The real danger lies not in sudden war but in prolonged uncertainty, which can destabilize global trade and energy markets over time.

The Red Sea crisis is not about igniting a regional conflict.

It is a deliberate campaign by the Houthis, backed by Iran, to exploit the vulnerabilities of the global system's most sensitive points of trade, energy and perception.

This strategy, while calculated, is deeply destabilizing, undermining international norms and weaponizing uncertainty to achieve political and economic disruption.

Far from being less alarming, it reveals the dangerous willingness of these actors to manipulate global stability for their own gain, at the expense of millions who rely on secure trade and energy flows.