China's covert campaign to destabilize the Philippines

Global Watch | 2026-01-14

The Philippines has found itself at the center of a sophisticated and multi-layered campaign of destabilization orchestrated by China.

From physical confrontations at sea to covert disinformation campaigns in the digital sphere, China's actions are undermining Philippine sovereignty, eroding trust in democratic institutions and reshaping public opinion in ways that demand urgent attention from both Manila and its allies.

China's physical aggression in the West Philippine Sea -- what the Philippines calls the parts of the South China Sea that are included in its exclusive economic zone -- has been relentless.

Over the past several years, Beijing has intensified its presence in disputed waters, deploying militia vessels, constructing artificial islands and harassing Filipino fishermen. These actions are not isolated incidents but part of a broader strategy to assert dominance over the region and enforce its expansive territorial claims.

The Philippines has repeatedly protested these incursions, but China's disregard for international law, including the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated its claims, has left Manila struggling to defend its maritime rights.

The consequences of this aggression are far-reaching. Filipino fishermen have been forced to abandon traditional fishing grounds due to harassment, while the Philippine Coast Guard faces constant challenges in protecting its waters.

These physical confrontations are designed to weaken the Philippines' ability to assert sovereignty and to normalize China's presence in the region, creating a de facto reality that undermines international norms.

Destabilization

While the world's attention often focuses on Beijing's aggressive maneuvers in the West Philippine Sea, the battle for influence has expanded far beyond territorial waters into the digital sphere.

Leaked documents reveal a sophisticated disinformation campaign aimed at reshaping Filipino perceptions of China. According to the internal guidelines of a local marketing firm allegedly hired by the Chinese embassy, the operation seeks to "change the overall negative perception of Filipinos about the Chinese and China" using fake social media profiles to infiltrate daily conversations and spread pro-China narratives.

These "keyboard warriors" are not foreign operatives but Filipinos hired through contracts and managed like call center agents. The pose as teachers, students and workers to manipulate public opinion and erode trust in democratic discourse.

China's destabilization efforts in the Philippines also extend to economic coercion, diplomatic pressure and cultural influence.

Beijing has leveraged its economic power to deepen dependency, offering loans and investments that come with strings attached. At the same time, it has used diplomatic channels to push narratives that frame its actions as benign or beneficial, while portraying the Philippines as a pawn of Western powers.

Cultural influence campaigns, including Confucius Institutes and educational exchanges, further complicate the picture. While these initiatives are often presented as opportunities for cultural understanding, they can serve as vehicles for soft power, subtly advancing Beijing's agenda.

China's actions are not just an attack on Philippine sovereignty, but a test of the country's resilience and its ability to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics.

Lessons learned

The physical aggression in the West Philippine Sea threatens livelihoods and national security, while the digital disinformation campaign undermines trust in democratic institutions. Together, these efforts aim to weaken the Philippines' ability to resist Beijing's influence and to create a narrative in which China’s dominance is inevitable.

China's destabilization of the Philippines offers important lessons for other nations in the region.

The tactics employed, combining physical aggression with covert influence operations, are likely to be replicated elsewhere as Beijing seeks to expand its reach.

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its allies, including the United States and Europe, supporting the Philippines is not just a matter of solidarity it is a strategic imperative.

As the world watches, Manila's response will not only shape its own future but also set the tone for how nations can stand up to coercion in the 21st century.