The Sahel's great gamble: Sovereignty or servitude

Global Watch | 2026-01-10

A region at the epicenter of a multifaceted crisis, the Sahel has become the newest stage for a great power contest.

The military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, united in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have made a decisive pivot away from their traditional Western partners. Expelling French and American forces, they have rolled out the red carpet for two eager suitors: Russia and China.

This strategic realignment, framed by its architects as a definitive break from a neo-colonial past, is viewed by critics as a high-stakes gamble that may be swapping one form of dependency for another, with the long-suffering populations of the Sahel caught in the middle.

A new path

Officials in Ouagadougou, Bamako and Niamey vehemently reject the notion that they are naive proxies. They cast their realignment as a liberation from French influence and a Western security strategy that failed to deliver.

The core of their argument rests on sovereignty.

"We do not ask that anyone intervene to affect our destiny," Burkina Faso's president, Ibrahim Traoré, said in 2023. "The Burkinabé people have decided to fight -- to fight against terrorism in order to improve our development."

This sentiment is echoed across the AES, which frames its new alliances not as swapping masters, but as a sovereign choice to engage with partners who "respect us."

They point to the long, costly and ultimately unsuccessful presence of French and UN forces as proof that the old model was broken. Despite years of Western-led counter-terrorism, jihadist groups expanded their reach, fueling popular support for the military coups.

The AES leaders also direct their ire at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), accusing the bloc of being a tool for foreign powers. They argue that the heavy sanctions imposed after the coups were "illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible," demonstrating a lack of solidarity in their existential fight.

In response, they have taken matters into their own hands, forming a 5,000-strong joint counter-terrorism force as a proactive step toward regional self-reliance.

The price of partnership

While the AES presents a united front, Russia and China bring distinct playbooks to the region. They are not a monolithic bloc but competitors with different methods and endgames.

Russia's approach is that of a tenacious pitbull: reactive, interventionist and focused on immediate security gains.

For the isolated juntas, Moscow offers the tempting proposition of regime survival, delivered through arms sales and the deployment of the Africa Corps, the successor to the notorious Wagner Group.

This partnership follows a familiar "security-for-resources" model, where access to lucrative mining concessions, particularly gold, is the price of armed support. This transactional relationship is cemented by a pervasive disinformation campaign that skillfully exploits genuine anti-French sentiment, painting Russia as the true ally of African sovereignty.

In stark contrast, China pursues an "elephant strategy" -- a deliberate, gradual and weighty presence centered on long-term economic entrenchment.

Beijing's engagement is less about immediate conflict and more about its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This translates to massive investments, such as the development of Niger's Agadem oil field and securing rights to the vast Goulamina lithium mine in Mali -- a critical resource for the global energy transition.

While primarily economic, China’s security footprint is growing to protect these billion-dollar investments, supplying affordable military hardware and exporting its model of surveillance-driven governance.

This "no strings attached" approach, which sidesteps Western conditionalities on human rights and democracy, is highly appealing to the military regimes.

Truth and consequences

Between the defiant narrative of the AES and the critical analysis of its new partnerships lies a sobering reality on the ground.

On the question of sovereignty, the truth is complex. The AES has successfully broken from its historic Western dependency, a move fueled by legitimate popular frustration.

However, they have immediately entered into new, more transactional dependencies. The rhetoric of sovereignty clashes with a new reality where military survival is contingent on Russian mercenaries and economic development is tied to Chinese loans and resource extraction.

Sovereignty, it appears, has been redefined as the freedom of the ruling juntas to choose their patrons.

On security, the official claims of success are not supported by independent data. Reputable conflict-tracking organizations show that since the pivot, violence against civilians has dramatically increased, often perpetrated by both jihadists and state security forces alongside their Russian allies.

While capital cities may be more secure, vast rural areas have fallen further under the control of armed groups. The change in partners has primarily secured the regimes, not the people.

Finally, the promise of Pan-African liberation is wearing thin, revealing a stark consolidation of authoritarian rule. The juntas have postponed elections, cracked down on dissent, and silenced the media. By aligning with Russia and China -- partners who are indifferent to democratic norms -- they have successfully removed the primary external pressure for a return to civilian governance.

An uncertain future

The people of the Sahel were undeniably failed by a decade of Western-led policy that could not contain the violence. This created a political vacuum and a genuine public desire for change.

However, the military juntas have exploited this popular discontent not to deliver genuine security or sovereignty, but to seize power for themselves.

The tragic truth is that the citizens of the Sahel remain trapped.

They have merely exchanged one set of flawed and distant international partners for another, all while their new national leaders become more repressive and the violence and suffering in their daily lives intensify. The Sahel's great gamble continues, and it is far from certain that its people will be the ones to benefit.