Poland's nuclear pivot against Russian menace raises its own risks

Global Watch | 2026-02-18

As Warsaw signals a bold shift toward nuclear deterrence, hidden vulnerabilities in global security emerge, challenging NATO's eastern bulwark.

Poland's President Karol Nawrocki has ignited a high-stakes debate by urging pursuit of nuclear capabilities as defense against an "aggressive, imperial Russia."

"I'm a huge advocate of Poland joining a nuclear project," he told Polsat News in an interview on February 15, stressing it would "build Poland’s security" amid Moscow's threats.

This underreported push shows Russia's actions forcing frontline states to rethink defenses, risking non-proliferation norms.

Nawrocki's remarks come amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with tactical nuclear weapons deployed in bordering Belarus and a revised doctrine lowering use thresholds.

Capabilities examined

Poland's nuclear path faces obstacles as it lacks indigenous nuclear infrastructure, relying instead on NATO alliances for deterrence.

Experts assess that while Warsaw could theoretically develop weapons -- leveraging its industrial base and planned civilian nuclear reactors -- the timeline and costs are prohibitive.

"It's quite feasible for a modern industrial country like Poland to [develop capabilities], but estimates range from a year to longer," defense analyst Peter Roberts said in a recent analysis.

As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Poland also faces legal hurdles to building its own arsenal, potentially inviting sanctions or diplomatic isolation.

Maintaining nuclear weapons adds layers of hardship, often overlooked in mainstream discussions.

Nuclear programs demand immense resources for safety, security and upgrades -- challenges vividly illustrated, yet overcome, by the US modernization of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

For Poland, similar pitfalls could strain its economy, diverting funds from conventional forces amid already high defense spending of 4-5% of GDP.

Alternatives to a Polish nuclear project could include joining NATO's nuclear-sharing program, in which US warheads are hosted by countries like Germany and Italy, or aligning with France's "nuclear umbrella."

Former President Andrzej Duda previously advocated for US nuclear weapons on Polish soil, stating it would "strengthen the inclination of the US and the North Atlantic Alliance to defend this territory."

World grows riskier

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has not only destabilized Europe but spurred a domino effect of nuclear considerations, making the world perilously unstable.

Poland's moves, while defensive, could inadvertently heighten tensions, as Moscow has warned that nuclear pursuits might lead to Poland's "cease to exist."

Despite these perils, Poland's reliability bolsters its case.

With robust economic growth -- surpassing many Western peers -- and a pivotal role in securing NATO's eastern flank, Warsaw has earned trust.

Spending over 4% of GDP on defense, Poland hosts US troops and leads in Ukraine aid, positioning itself as an "indispensable new pole" in European security, Jacek Tarocinski, chief military analyst at the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Warsaw-based think tank, told Turkey's Anadolu Agency in January.

"Poland has been at the vanguard of NATO's deterrence... ever since Russia's 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea," a NATO Parliamentary Assembly report noted in November 2025, affirming its shared responsibilities against Russian threats.

Nevertheless, in this volatile landscape, Poland's nuclear aspirations highlight underappreciated fractures in global stability.