Iranian and Russian science infrastructure: Fragile institutions crippled by deadly consequences

Global Watch | 2025-08-22

The dismantling of scientific infrastructure in Iran and Russia, resulting from purges and a breakdown of trust, has crippled the institutions underpinning their weapons development.

Vertically integrated systems, once seamlessly connecting academic research to defense deployment, have been replaced by fragmented bureaucracies and hollowed-out programs.

In Iran, the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the key link between academia and clandestine weapons programs, left a leadership vacuum within the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research. Subsequent reshuffles within the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics and procurement scandals involving North Korean components have further degraded Iran's defense industry.

Russia's decline takes a different form. Purges and criminal charges within Rosatom and its subsidiaries, including the arrest of former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, have disrupted the once-fluid coordination between civil nuclear energy and strategic weapons development. Exposure of procurement fraud within the 12th Main Directorate has further eroded public trust.

Both nations rely on outdated infrastructure. Russian facilities, like the Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, suffer from corruption and political interference. Iran, hampered by sanctions, relies on smuggled components, hindering sophisticated research and development. Both struggle to institutionalize innovation, relying instead on ad-hoc projects and opaque networks of loyalty and coercion.

Brain drain

This institutional decay manifests in failed tests, unusable prototypes and a flight of talent. While maintaining a facade of technological continuity, the scientific foundations of both nations are eroding. This decline has long-term consequences, increasing the likelihood of irrational actors, desperate measures and miscalculations. Fragile institutions make missile and nuclear programs more dangerous, not less.

The systematic removal of scientists, coupled with institutional decay and a demoralized talent pool, creates an uncertain future for Iranian and Russian strategic weapons programs. What was once a path to deterrence and great power status has become a liability, resembling patchwork efforts sustained by propaganda and secrecy.

In Iran, the loss of scientific leadership has undermined its nuclear and missile credibility. Western intelligence has exploited these vulnerabilities, disabling systems, intercepting shipments and sowing distrust. Iran's ability to field reliable missile forces is now questionable.

Russia, despite its nuclear arsenal and military-industrial complex, is also feeling the strain. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the brain drain, forcing reliance on Chinese components and outdated designs. Public scandals, like arrests for embezzlement and espionage, have shaken confidence and exposed institutional fractures.

Both regimes are trapped in a self-reinforcing cycle: fear fuels purges, which drive out essential talent, further weakening their strategic posture and increasing the risk of miscalculation.

Internal decay, external pressure

Their deterrence strategies may ultimately backfire through internal collapse, not confrontation. The world should recognize that desperation, not strength, increasingly motivates their military posturing. The erosion of scientific integrity within these authoritarian regimes represents a significant threat to global stability.

The dismantling of these scientific ecosystems is a cautionary tale about how authoritarianism, paranoia, and isolation can undermine national security.

The decline of Iran and Russia's missile and nuclear programs paints a picture of strategic giants burdened by legacy ambitions and vast arsenals yet hollowed out by internal decay and external pressure.

Targeted assassinations are merely the most visible aspect of a broader campaign of attrition. The real damage lies in the erosion of institutional trust, the fracturing of academic pipelines, the loss of academic minds and a pervasive climate of fear.

These factors have decimated once-vibrant scientific communities and crippled collaborative knowledge exchange.