The hidden collapse of missile, nuclear research in Russia and Iran

By Global Watch | 2025-08-01

Previously, Global Watch covered some of the physical pressures facing Iranian and Russian scientists; equally important is the internal scholastic decay undermining these nations' missile and nuclear research sectors from within.

In Iran, the assassination campaign against nuclear scientists has bred a pervasive atmosphere of fear and suspicion.

Government loyalty tests, surveillance by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ideological scrutiny have pushed many researchers into silence or exile. The regime's emphasis on ideological conformity discourages open academic debate and stifles innovation.

In 2010, Iranian nuclear physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi was killed by a remote-controlled bomb near his home in Tehran. After his death, colleagues reported that the climate of intimidation worsened, with many scientists fearing they could be next.

Former nuclear researchers who have fled Iran describe an environment where self-censorship has become a survival tool. Encieh Erfani -- a physicist at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences in Iran -- resigned in 2022 as a form of protest against the Iranian regime's treatment of students.

She is now continuing her academic pursuits outside the country.

"The problem here is that the censorship structure has red lines that you know exist and, from experience, you know you should not even come close to them," she told the Index on Censorship website for an article last December.

Erfani's sentiments highlight one of the reasons for growing self-censorship in Iran. In a community defined by "pushing existing boundaries," as the Index on Censorship phrased it, the fear of unknowingly crossing red lines perpetuates self-censorship and impedes scholastic achievement.

Furthermore, the Iranian government's insistence on tight control has led to corruption scandals within its scientific institutions, further eroding morale and trust. For example, in 2019, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran faced allegations of financial mismanagement and nepotism, affecting procurement processes critical to nuclear development.

Russia: brain drain and paranoia

Russia's missile and aerospace sectors suffer from a growing brain drain accelerated by wartime pressures and political repression. Between 2022 and 2024, it is estimated that more than 2,500 scientists and engineers fled Russia with many relocating to Europe and Asia.

In interviews, defectors reveal that fear of persecution by security services for alleged "disloyalty" or "Western ties" is a primary driver.

The arrest of leading scientists on espionage charges has thickened this atmosphere.

The case of Anatoly Maslov, detained in 2023 on treason allegations linked to his international collaborations, sent shock waves through the research community. Simultaneously, the Kremlin's tightening grip on academic institutions has curtailed international cooperation. Russian universities specializing in aerospace and missile technology have been instructed to sever ties with foreign research partners, isolating scientists and reducing access to cutting-edge knowledge.

Consequences for scientific innovation and national security

These internal pressures degrade the very foundation of scientific innovation. With rising paranoia, purges and loss of talent, Iran and Russia's missile and nuclear programs face critical setbacks beyond battlefield attrition.

Vladimir Marakhonov, a Russian physicist with a doctorate in physics and mathematics, worked as a researcher at the Ioffe Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. An independent scholar now, Marakhonov explained why he left Russia in September 2022 for Finland.

"The trouble is that it is primarily smart people who leave," he told the Barents Observer in an interview published in January 2024. "In Russia, unfortunately, there is now a tradition where not the smartest people are placed in leadership positions, but those who [grovel before] their superiors, ready to do whatever is asked of them. And when the boss, roughly speaking, is a thief and unprofessional, he selects thieves and [unprofessional people] to work with. The same is happening in science."

For students and professionals considering careers in these fields, the message is clear: the environments within Iran and Russia's missile and nuclear sectors are hostile not only because of external threats but also because of systemic internal dysfunction.

In the next article in this series, Global Watch will report on how NATO's blend of technological precision, flexible basing and strategic depth offers an enduring advantage in the Arctic, countering Russia's immediate readiness and infrastructure in the region.