Russia's war in Ukraine: A march toward military and economic collapse

By Global Watch | 2025-08-05

Russia's war in Ukraine is unraveling into a catastrophic failure, with almost 1 million soldiers killed or injured and its economy teetering on the brink of collapse.

Moscow's reliance on outdated strategies and hollow nuclear rhetoric reveals a leadership more focused on self-preservation than on the safety and security of its people. As sanctions tighten and trading partners face mounting risks, Russia's refusal to agree to a ceasefire is driving itself -- and those who rely on its energy exports -- toward economic disaster. The repercussions of this war are not just military; they are existential.

Military failures and mounting casualties

Russia's military campaign has been defined by staggering losses. Almost 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the invasion began in 2022, with approximately 250,000 dead -- a toll unmatched in any Soviet or Russian conflict since World War II.

Moscow's strategy of "meat grinder" assaults that throw soldiers into battle for marginal territorial gains has resulted in slow and costly advances. Since January 2024, Russia has seized only 1% of Ukrainian territory, a paltry achievement that underscores its inability to achieve its strategic objectives.

To offset its staggering casualty rate, the Kremlin has turned to desperate measures, recruiting convicts, enlisting North Korean troops and targeting poorer regions of Russia for conscription. Meanwhile, the children of Moscow and St. Petersburg elites remain untouched, exposing the Kremlin's prioritization of self-preservation over national security.

Economic fragility and growing repercussions

Russia's economy is buckling under the weight of its prolonged war effort. Already weakened by years of sanctions, Moscow's reliance on energy exports is becoming increasingly precarious. Nations like India and China, Russia's largest oil buyers, now face the prospect of secondary sanctions from the United States, further isolating Moscow economically.

The imposition of tariffs on Russian oil exports would cut off vital revenue streams, exacerbating its financial instability. For nations trading with Russia, the risks of continued economic engagement are growing. A refusal to agree to a ceasefire could lead to broader economic repercussions, affecting not only Russia but also its trading partners.

The illusion of nuclear rhetoric

Amid its military and economic struggles, Russia's leadership has resorted to nuclear rhetoric to project strength. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's recent invocation of the "Dead Hand" nuclear command system -- an inflexible, automatic or pre-programmed nuclear deterrence -- is emblematic of Moscow's desperation.

Such posturing highlights the Kremlin's focus on self-preservation rather than on the safety and security of its citizens. By prioritizing its leadership's survival over the well-being of the nation, Moscow is undermining its own credibility on the global stage.

A looming collapse

The combination of military failures, economic fragility and hollow nuclear threats paints a bleak picture for Russia's future. The repercussions of its prolonged war in Ukraine are not only eroding its military capabilities but driving the country toward economic and societal collapse.

Russia's refusal to agree to a ceasefire is unsustainable. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the cost will be -- not only for Russia but for its trading partners and the global economy.

As the Kremlin clings to its failing strategy, the path forward for Russia is one of diminishing returns and growing isolation. The question is not if Russia will face the consequences of its actions but how soon those consequences will bring about a reckoning for its leadership and its people.