China may benefit from Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine

By Sultan Musayev | 2024-11-21

ALMATY -- If Russia followed through on its threats and launched a hypothetical nuclear strike on Ukraine, Moscow would gain no strategic advantages, analysts say.

However, Beijing might find itself better off, as it would actively exploit its partner's enfeeblement to further its own interests.

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev have regularly resorted to nuclear saber rattling, threatening to use "all means available" in response to Western military support for Kyiv.

This nuclear rhetoric is mainly meant to intimidate Kyiv and its allies rather than reflect the Kremlin's real intentions, many analysts say.

Others wonder what the consequences could be if this frightening scenario does come true.

No one doubts that Russia would face dire, even catastrophic, consequences if it chooses to launch a nuclear warhead.

In that situation, can Moscow count on its "friendship without limits" with Beijing? Even if it can, the assistance will not be free, analysts say.

Amid increased isolation on the international stage, Russia's use of nuclear weapons will only deepen its dependence on China, said Islam Baigarayev, director of the bar association in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, a lawyer and security analyst.

The West is unlikely to escalate a nuclear conflict, but Russia would still face consequences unprecedented in their scale and severity, including an equally powerful conventional military response and significantly stronger sanctions, said Baigarayev.

"After a nuclear strike, Russia would find itself deeply isolated around the globe, and only China could help it survive in those conditions," he told Global Watch.

Beijing might not turn its back on the global pariah, but one must not consider it an unwavering friend of Moscow, he said.

"China always acts in its own interest," said Baigarayev.

'Friendship without limits'

The relations between the two countries abundantly substantiate this claim.

In February this year, in compliance with US sanctions, three of China's largest banks stopped accepting payments from Russian companies.

The priorities are clear: China's annual trade with the United States amounts to approximately $700 billion, whereas its trade with Russia is $290 billion.

China later refused to import wood pellets from Russia unless it resumed supplies of unprocessed softwood and valuable hardwood, the export of which Russia banned in 2022.

These facts are not very consistent with declarations of a "friendship without limits" between the two countries.

Beijing will go further, seeking greater access to Russia's advanced military innovations and space technologies in exchange for economic and diplomatic support, and Moscow will have no choice but to accept its partner's terms, said Baigarayev.

Russia's widespread isolation opens up economic opportunities for China, analysts say.

"Amid tightened anti-Russian sanctions, China will be able to fill the resulting niche in this market with its goods and technologies, strengthening its economic influence," said Bishkek economist Elmira Suranchiyeva.

Beijing can expect a sharp increase in demand for its goods in Russia, she told Global Watch.

A broadly isolated Russia will be forced to more actively switch to transacting in Chinese yuan, especially in trade with China, allowing Beijing to realize its ambitions to bolster the yuan on the world stage, she said.

As a major buyer of Russian oil and gas with preferential prices, China may not have to worry about rising energy prices stemming from sanctions against Russia, Suranchiyeva said.

"Beijing has already used the war in Ukraine to reduce prices for Russian raw materials as much as possible for itself," she said.

"Thus, Russia has already become a source of resources for the Chinese economy, and in the event of a nuclear strike, Russia will most likely turn into China's raw-material [provider] once and for all."

Eyes on Central Asia

Moreover, if Moscow tried to extract itself from the hole it would find itself in as a result of a nuclear strike, Beijing would actively expand its influence in neighboring Central Asia -- a region that lay in Russia's sphere of interest for decades, analysts say.

Central Asia is of strategic interest to China as a source of natural resources and as a transit region, said Dosym Satpayev, an Almaty-based political scientist and director of the Risk Assessment Group.

China seeks to mine and import rare earth minerals from Central Asian countries, which are vital for its economic prosperity, he told Global Watch.

Beijing is also promoting the creation and development of transport and logistics infrastructure in Central Asian states as part of its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in order to ensure that it has multiple land routes for transporting its exports to Europe, he said.

This strategy requires not only that the relevant projects be funded but also that the region is secure and stable.

Even though under the past tacit arrangement, China bore responsibility for Central Asian economies while Russia guaranteed the countries' security, the war in Ukraine and Russia's declining military power are causing Beijing's influence to leak into the security domain as well.

"China is extremely interested in the stability and security of the region, because it has invested tens of billions of dollars in the economies of these countries," Satpayev said.

Although Beijing officially advocates restoring peace and opposes the use of nuclear weapons, it benefits from Russia and the West being weakened by mutual confrontation, said Baigarayev.

"In that case, China will become stronger and more influential globally," he said.