Xi courts Central Asia as Moscow's reach in region wanes amid Ukraine war

By Robert Stanley | 2025-06-16

Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, this week for a summit of Central Asian nations underscores Beijing's growing dominance in a region long seen as Russia's backyard -- and Moscow's diminishing influence in the wake of its war in Ukraine.

Images from Chinese state broadcaster CCTV showed Xi's presidential plane gliding along a sun-drenched runway June 16 ahead of a welcome from diplomats flanked by military personnel in white and blue uniforms.

He will hold Sino-Kazakh meetings before the second China-Central Asia Summit on June 17, according to Kazakhstan's presidency.

Xi's visit to Astana -- his sixth -- highlights China's deepening strategic ties with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan at a time when Russia is losing its grip on Central Asia, distracted by the war in Ukraine and a sinking economy at home.

The summit follows Xi's meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Moscow last month, but it is Central Asia where China is visibly supplanting Russia's traditional influence.

"It's very much about China being resource‑scarce and sitting next to a region that has the resources it needs," Carolyn Kissane, professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs, told Global Watch.

China has long seen Central Asia as part of its "sphere of influence," she added.

Energy motivation

Beijing's influence extends beyond resource diplomacy.

China reportedly has built a secret military base in Tajikistan along its border with Afghanistan, part of an effort to prevent Afghan and Central Asian Islamists from infiltrating China and its Muslim Uighur population. Tajikistan shares a 1,350km-long border with Afghanistan.

The United States is Kazakhstan's second leading investor with $44.8 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) as of October 2023, according to Kazakhstan's central bank.

China and Russia remain significant but smaller players.

"The main investing countries [in Kazakhstan] are the Netherlands (23.3%), the U.S. (19.6%), Russia (7.7%), the UK (6.1%), China (5.5%), and France (5.4%)," Lloyds Bank said in May.

Still, Beijing's clout is rising: trade between China and Central Asia surged 27% in 2023 to $89 billion.

Energy is China's prime objective. Beijing has spent billions acquiring stakes in Kazakh energy firms and constructed pipelines and rail infrastructure across the region. Three new oil and gas pipelines are already operational, with a fourth under construction.

'Strategic partnership'

Russia's plans to boost natural-gas exports to China through Kazakhstan hit a roadblock in April when China's ambassador to Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, said the existing pipeline was "overloaded" and that building a new one was too expensive.

Instead, Russia and China should reach agreement on deliveries through the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, said Zhang, referring to a pipeline that, if built, would extend from Siberia to China via Mongolia.

The snub further isolates Russia from desperately needed energy revenues.

As Lorena Lombardozzi, senior lecturer at the University of London, noted in a report in The Conversation, her Uzbek interviewees "saw deals with China as more reliable than Russia."

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev echoed that sentiment last year, calling China "a friendly neighboring state, an important strategic partner and one of our main allies" and referencing their "eternal comprehensive strategic partnership."

The rivalry between China and Russia in Central Asia echoes the 19th-century "Great Game" between Russia and Britain, but today, Kazakhstan and its neighbors find themselves reluctantly navigating a path between economic gains and geopolitical influence.

"It's 100% reluctance, but they are stuck," Kissane said. "They want the economic benefits but fear [China's] territorial incursion."