Weaponized shipping: EU warns of rising risks from Russia's 'shadow fleet'

By Robert Stanley | 2025-05-22

Russia's so-called shadow fleet -- oil tankers operating outside international norms to skirt sanctions -- may also be conducting surveillance, signal intelligence gathering or other covert activities, European leaders warn.

These suspicions deepened May 21 when Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a post on X that a Russian vessel had been spotted performing "suspicious maneuvers" near an undersea power cable connecting Poland and Sweden.

Just a day earlier, the European Union (EU) unveiled a new round of sanctions identifying 342 such tankers as part of Moscow's effort to bypass a Western-imposed oil export cap.

These vessels are now banned from accessing EU ports.

The EU's pressure on the shadow fleet -- characterized by murky ownership and use of flags of convenience and often operating with tracking systems turned off -- has forced a 76% drop in Russian crude oil exports, significantly reducing Russia's ability to pay for its three-year-old war in Ukraine.

'Dangerous' times

Still, sanctions alone have not stemmed the fleet's operations and European leaders are increasingly concerned about the potential for sabotage in what they describe as a broader Russian hybrid warfare campaign against Ukraine's allies.

"This shows how dangerous the times we live in are, how serious the situation in the Baltic Sea is," Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said during a news conference following Tusk's remarks.

After a Polish aircraft warned the vessel it was being monitored, it departed for a Russian port, Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

"Since Sweden and Finland joined the North Atlantic Alliance, the Baltic Sea has become a key marine area, where the largest number of incidents occur -- the most common incidents related to cable breaks… and sabotage," he added.

A senior Polish navy officer told Reuters that the vessel in question was the Sun, a shadow fleet tanker sailing under the flag of Antigua.

Such incidents are not isolated.

In December, Finland's navy seized a tanker suspected of cutting a power cable and four data cables between Finland and Estonia by dragging its anchor, part of what Finnish officials suspect is a shadow fleet operation.

Just a month earlier, a Chinese ship was blamed for a similar incident that severed data cables linking Germany to Finland and Lithuania to Sweden.

In October 2023, a Hong Kong-owned container ship, the Newnew Polar Bear, en route from Russia, damaged a Baltic Sea gas pipeline and two telecommunication cables between Estonia and Finland after dragging its anchor.

Russian fighter jet flyby

These episodes are adding to tensions in the Baltic Sea, which is bordered by eight NATO countries and provides access to Russia's only year-round northern ports.

Last week, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said a Russian fighter jet violated NATO airspace shortly after Estonia's navy intercepted a shadow fleet vessel, the Jaguar, in the Baltic Sea. The ship was flying without a flag and appeared to be uninsured.

While the ship was halted, the Russian jet appeared overhead. The Jaguar quickly headed for a Russian port.

"This fighter jet violated NATO territory for one minute. This is something very new," Tsahkna said at a NATO meeting in Antalya, Turkey, noting that NATO jets scrambled to intercept.

"This case is yet another example proving that Russia poses a serious threat not only with its military action in Ukraine, but much more broadly," he said in a separate statement.

Russia responded a week later by detaining the Green Admire, a Liberian-flagged ship, as it departed the Estonian port of Sillamäe. Moscow claimed the vessel had entered Russian territorial waters while navigating a shipping lane. Russia released it two days later.

Submarine spying

The concern extends beyond the Baltic.

In April, British newspaper The Times reported that Russia is intensifying covert activity in the Atlantic Ocean by deploying spy submarines and specialized research vessels to install underwater sensors, an apparent effort to monitor the United Kingdom's nuclear submarine fleet.

The shadow fleet plays a central role in Russia's ability to sell oil above the $60-per-barrel cap imposed by Ukraine's allies. By concealing cargoes and destinations, these vessels sell Russian crude to buyers willing to circumvent the sanctions.

The fleet primarily consists of older tankers, often purchased secondhand and registered under flags of convenience such as those of Gabon, the Cook Islands, or other jurisdictions that do not enforce sanctions or standard safety regulations. Many are owned by companies based in the United Arab Emirates or Seychelles, and some by Russia's state-run Sovcomflot shipping company.

To evade detection, many of these ships deactivate their automatic identification systems, which are beacons required to prevent collisions and track vessel movements. Doing so further obscures their activities.