Russia puts emphasis on conventional missiles as nuclear arsenal modernization stalls

By Sultan Musayev | 2025-03-05

ALMATY -- In a quiet shift, the Kremlin is now focusing on conventional weapon development over nuclear weapon development, a tacit admission of defeat in regard to equipping its strategic force with modern technologies.

Russia has stopped modernizing its strategic nuclear forces and instead is giving priority to conventional weapons, Maxim Starchak, a specialist on Russian nuclear policy, wrote in a report published in January by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

"For a long time, the driving force behind Russia's rearmament was the modernization of its strategic nuclear forces," Starchak wrote.

This trend implied a rejection of missiles and their delivery vehicles that had been developed during the Soviet era and a shift to new, Russian technologies.

But everything changed last year.

The Ministry of Defense did not receive Sarmat missiles, the Knyaz Pozharsky submarine or an additional batch of modernized Tu-160M strategic bombers.

"By the end of [2024], President Vladimir Putin's focus was on the new Oreshnik missile system and medium-range ballistic missile[s]. .. the defense industry's priorities have shifted toward conventional forces," the report reads.

As of the end of 2024, 88% of the weapons in the SMF were modern models developed in the post-Soviet period, Gen.-Col. Sergei Karakayev, who commands Russia's Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), said in an interview in December with the state-backed military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star).

This figure had not grown since 2023, indicating a halt to the modernization process. The Kremlin had planned to reach 100% modernization, not 88%, by 2024.

Karakayev tried to play down the stagnation in the defense industry with braggadocio about conventional missiles.

"There is no place [in the world] that's too far away for our missiles to reach," Karakayev said.

As for nuclear weapons, the general stressed that as of now Russia has no need to increase the pace or number of tests of promising strategic weapon systems.

'Ready to use any means'

This statement mirrors the Kremlin's new policy of walking back from upgrading of nuclear forces.

At a meeting of the Council for Civil Society and Human Rights in Russia in December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia needed to concentrate on bolstering the Oreshnik missile system.

The new intermediate-range ballistic missile can reportedly fly more than 12,000km/h and hit targets in Europe.

"When you think about it, the advancement of modern weapon systems will almost eliminate the necessity for the use of nuclear weapons," Putin said.

Russia tested the Oreshnik in November, using it to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The missile damaged an industrial facility, rehabilitation center and private homes.

The Kremlin is now threatening Ukraine and its allies with the Oreshnik, presenting it as an alternative to a nuclear weapon.

"When used in a concentrated, massive strike -- using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously -- the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon," Putin said in November at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Astana.

Problems, failed tests

The Kremlin's move away from nuclear rhetoric and its focus on the Oreshnik is connected to problems with nuclear weapons, say observers.

Russia still has not deployed the Yars and Sarmat strategic missile systems, Starchak wrote in his report.

The Sarmat, which is designed to carry nuclear warheads over many thousands of kilometers and is called "Putin's pride," repeatedly failed tests.

The most recent failure occurred last September, when an explosion occurred during an attempted Sarmat launch in Arkhangelsk province.

Over the next few years, Russia will continue to experience problems deploying Sarmats for combat duty even though it has announced large-scale production of the missile, said Starchak.

"The delays primarily stem from the fact that the Roscosmos subsidiaries involved in the production of the Sarmat are experiencing financial and manufacturing problems due to sanctions [imposed by the global community on Russia as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine], personnel shortages, and debt," Starchak wrote in his report.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has drawn similar conclusions.

"Russia continues to struggle with developing new missile capabilities under the pressures of international sanctions and the demands on the Russian defense industrial base ... amid the war in Ukraine," the ISW wrote in September after the latest failed test of the Sarmat.

'A significant blow'

The failed tests of the Sarmat, which a few years ago the Kremlin was trumpeting, are prompting mixed reactions around the world, including in the member-states of the CSTO, which Moscow coordinates.

The military bloc's Central Asian members have grown disillusioned after decades of expecting Russia to guarantee regional security, observers say.

"The Sarmat did deal a significant blow -- to Russia's image," Murat Ashimov, a lawyer in Bishkek, told Global Watch.

The failed tests of the strategic missiles demonstrate that Russia is having problems with the reliability of its military equipment and weapons that could be linked to corruption in the defense sector, he said.

"It's unlikely that Russia has an advanced nuclear arsenal, which is the impression Russian officials are trying to give," Ashimov said. "And of course the sanctions have obviously had an effect too."

Stagnation in Russia's nuclear weapons and military failures in Ukraine have damaged Russia's reputation as protector of CSTO member countries, Dosym Satpayev of Almaty, a political analyst and director of the Risk Assessment Group, said.

"The CSTO members, and particularly the Central Asian countries, have grasped that they should no longer count on Moscow's protection," Satpayev told Global Watch.

"They need to shore up their own defenses, as some of the former Soviet republics, like Azerbaijan, have done."

In the next few years the world may expect to see the Central Asian countries change the course of their military policy, cultivate new international partners and increase defense spending, said Satpayev.