Russia's latest Sarmat ICBM test ends in catastrophic failure

By Global Watch | 2024-09-30

Satellite imagery has indicated that Russia conducted an unsuccessful RS-28 "Sarmat" nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch, the latest sign of the Kremlin's deteriorating missile capabilities.

Images captured September 21 reveal a crater measuring about 60 meters across at the launch site at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia.

Visible damage to the surrounding area was not present in images taken earlier in September.

Open-source estimates have varied on whether an explosion occurred close to or at the time of the launch, or before during fueling, though NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System showed a fire on the Sarmat launch pad.

"One possible cause is that the first stage [booster] either failed to ignite properly or suffered from a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall back into or land closely adjacent to the silo and explode," Timothy Wright, research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told Reuters.

Test failures

For over six years, the Sarmat missile has been central to Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization.

The Sarmat is an ICBM designed to deliver nuclear warheads with a reported range of 10,000-18,000km, putting Europe or the United States in range.

It can carry up to 10 large warheads or 16 smaller ones, a combination of warheads and countermeasures, or hypersonic boost-glide vehicles, according to Russian media.

Initially slated to be operational by 2018, the Sarmat instead just racked up its fourth successive test failure, according to Wright.

Russia's military successfully tested the Sarmat only once, in April 2022, before reportedly putting the missile on combat duty in September 2023.

Nevertheless, Russian officials have repeatedly boasted about the Sarmat as the "world's deadliest weapon" and claimed that it would serve as "the basis of Russia's ground-based strategic nuclear forces."

The missile's apparent technical shortcomings are less serious than the destruction of the launch silo, according to Maxim Starchak, an analyst of Russian nuclear policy and strategic weapons and a fellow at Queen's University's Center for International and Defense Policy (in Canada).

Rebuilding or restoring the silo will take months or even years, "significantly delaying the Sarmat's testing program," he told Meduza, an independent news website.

Empty threats

The Kremlin has so far declined to comment on the reports of the failure, and the Defense Ministry has made no announcements about a planned Sarmat test.

The United States and allies have kept a close eye on Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization amid increased nuclear saber-rattling by the Kremlin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 25 announced plans to broaden Russia's rules on the use of its nuclear weaponry, allowing it to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack.

The proposals would also permit Moscow to respond with nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states if they are supported by nuclear powers -- a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

The proposed changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which Putin himself has the power to approve, come as Ukraine is seeking permission from Western allies to use long-range precision weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Western leaders have rejected the latest ultimatums from Moscow.

"Not for the first time, Putin is playing [a] gamble with his nuclear arsenal," EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano told reporters September 26. "We of course strongly reject these threats."

"This is just the continuation of the very irresponsible and unacceptable behavior on the side of Putin," he said.

"It's totally irresponsible, and I think many in the world have spoken clearly about that when he's been rattling the nuclear saber, including China in the past," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an MSNBC television interview the same day.