Winning without fighting: China's cognitive warfare against Taiwan

Global Watch | 2025-12-10

(This is the third of a five-part series of articles exploring how China may be preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan -- from covert militarization and invasion logistics to cognitive warfare, shipbuilding power and the global stakes of a showdown.)

In modern conflict, the most powerful weapon is often not a missile but a narrative.

While a recent Reuters investigation focused on the physical mobilization of China's shadow navy, it also revealed a parallel front in the battle for Taiwan: cognitive warfare. The highly visible nature of these exercises is no accident -- it is a calculated strategy designed to undermine Taiwan's psychological resilience.

In the Reuters report, a senior Taiwanese defense official described these maneuvers as a form of "cognitive warfare."

By publicizing landing exercises and allowing satellite imagery to capture massive civilian armadas, Beijing broadcasts a message of inevitability. The goal is to convince Taiwan's population and leadership that resistance is futile, portraying the PLA as an unstoppable force with endless resources.

This psychological strategy aligns with the PLA's doctrine of "winning wars without fighting." If fear can induce political surrender or "peaceful reunification" on Beijing's terms, the risks and costs of an amphibious invasion can be avoided entirely. The shadow navy, with its sheer scale and visibility, serves as a powerful tool in this narrative.

PLA limitations

However, the Reuters investigation also highlights vulnerabilities that Beijing seeks to conceal. Civilian vessels, unlike military ships, lack armor, point-defense systems and damage control capabilities. They are "soft targets" in a shooting war, highly susceptible to Taiwan's asymmetric defenses. Mobile anti-ship missiles and artillery could inflict catastrophic losses on these vessels, turning them into liabilities rather than assets.

The psychological impact of the shadow navy exercises is undeniable, but it also reveals the PLA's limitations. The reliance on civilian ships underscores a shortage of dedicated amphibious assault vessels, exposing gaps in China's military capabilities. While the exercises are designed to project strength, they also highlight vulnerabilities that Taiwan and its allies could exploit.

Taiwan's response to this cognitive warfare has been one of vigilance and preparation. Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized the importance of monitoring civilian vessels and developing countermeasures. Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, including mobile missile systems, are specifically designed to target the shadow navy's weaknesses.

The broader implications of cognitive warfare extend beyond Taiwan. By leveraging psychological tactics, China seeks to shape global perceptions of its military power. The shadow navy exercises serve as a demonstration of Beijing's ability to mobilize civilian assets for national defense, reinforcing its image as a rising superpower.

Yet, as Ian Easton of the US Naval War College points out in the Reuters report, "All war is a gamble." The shadow navy's visibility may intimidate Taiwan, but it also exposes China's strategy to international scrutiny. The exercises reveal the PLA's reliance on civilian vessels, providing valuable intelligence to Taiwan and its allies.

In conclusion, China's cognitive warfare against Taiwan is a calculated effort to win without fighting. By showcasing the shadow navy, Beijing aims to break Taiwan’s will and project an image of inevitability.

However, the vulnerabilities of civilian vessels and Taiwan's asymmetric defenses create a complex dynamic, where psychological tactics must be balanced against the realities of war.