America's demographic edge: Why immigration is the secret weapon against decline

Global Watch | 2025-11-05

The United States, like much of the developed world, is grappling with the challenges of low birthrates and an aging population.

The retirement wave of the Baby Boomer generation is straining the nation's social safety nets, while the fertility rate remains below replacement levels. Yet, unlike its main rivals -- China, Russia, Japan and much of Europe -- the United States has a unique demographic advantage: sustained immigration.

This steady influx of immigrants refreshes the workforce, keeps the population younger and provides a critical long-term geopolitical edge. However, this advantage comes with a caveat: failure to address the fiscal crisis caused by ballooning entitlement spending could undermine America's ability to capitalize on its demographic resilience, threatening its global primacy.

Immigration is the cornerstone of America's demographic stability. While other major powers face shrinking populations and unfavorable workforce-to-retiree ratios, net immigration consistently replenishes the US labor pool. This keeps the country younger and ensures a more balanced ratio of workers to retirees, mitigating the economic strain of an aging population.

By 2050, the United States is projected to be one of the few developed economies to significantly grow its population, a stark contrast to the demographic declines facing China and Russia.

Economic dynamism

Immigrants and their children are often drivers of entrepreneurship and innovation, sustaining America's lead in key technological sectors. From Silicon Valley startups to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, immigrant-founded companies and immigrant researchers play a disproportionate role in maintaining US economic dynamism. This entrepreneurial spirit ensures that the United States remains competitive in the global economy, even as rivals struggle with stagnation.

Immigration also bolsters the US military. Unlike China and Russia, which face severe manpower constraints due to shrinking youth populations, the United States benefits from a steady pool of potential recruits. This demographic stability allows America to maintain its all-volunteer force without resorting to conscription, ensuring a robust and adaptable military presence on the global stage.

Despite its demographic edge, the United States faces a mounting fiscal challenge. The retirement of the massive Baby Boomer generation is driving unprecedented increases in spending on Social Security and Medicare. By the 2030s, these entitlement programs will consume a significant portion of the federal budget, leaving little room for discretionary spending on areas vital to geopolitical competition, such as scientific research, infrastructure and non-military components of the defense budget.

The ballooning national debt, fueled by mandatory spending, risks crowding out investments in innovation and global competitiveness. Without a viable solution to this fiscal crisis, the United States could find itself unable to sustain the very advantages that make it a global leader.

Strategic priorities

Immigration, the factor sustaining America's demographic edge, is also one of the most polarizing political issues. Partisan divisions have led to policy instability, preventing the United States from fully capitalizing on its demographic advantage. A failure to reach a political consensus on immigration reform could jeopardize the long-term benefits of sustained population growth.

While rivals like China and Russia face demographic walls that will constrain their global ambitions, the United States is positioned for long-term stability. This demographic resilience allows America to focus on strategic priorities while its competitors are distracted by domestic crises. In the great power competition, demographics favor the side that can outlast the other -- and America is built for a marathon, while its rivals are sprinting toward collapse.

In the geopolitical arena, demographic structure is destiny. The United States has the ability to endure prolonged competition, while China and Russia face shrinking windows of opportunity to assert their power. This "war of attrition" advantage could prove decisive in shaping the global order.

America's demographic edge is a powerful asset, but it is not guaranteed. The nation's continued global primacy rests on two critical policy decisions: addressing the fiscal crisis to maintain investment in innovation and infrastructure and achieving a sustainable immigration system that preserves its demographic advantage.

Without these measures, the United States risks squandering its unique position in the global hierarchy. As history has shown, policy is destiny -- and the choices made today will determine whether America's demographic edge becomes a source of strength or a missed opportunity.