A new front? Russia's troop surge near Finland sparks fears of wider conflict

By Robert Stanley | 2025-05-27

Russia is quietly rebuilding its military presence along its 1,340-kilometer border with Finland -- a strategic shift that suggests Moscow is laying the groundwork for a future confrontation with NATO.

Satellite photographs analyzed by open-source intelligence firm Black Bird Group for The New York Times show new encampments and the expansion of existing bases near the Finnish frontier.

The moves appear to reverse the drawdown that occurred when Russia diverted troops from its northern border to focus on the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts say that while it could take years for Russia to build up sufficient forces to launch an assault on Finland, the effort is already well underway.

"When the Russians were building up their forces in Ukraine or on the border with Ukraine in anticipation of their invasion, the Finns noted that they pulled the troops away from that border, and the Finns were extraordinarily concerned about what would happen, obviously, if the troops went back again, which is what we've seen," Fiona Hill, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, said in an interview with National Public Radio on May 20.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly expected Ukraine to fall within days, Moscow's offensive remains largely stalled after three years of war.

Instead, Russia has suffered an estimated 975,800 casualties and lost more than 10,000 tanks, 28 warships, 372 aircraft and a submarine among other military equipment, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported May 20.

Psychological move?

Despite those setbacks, the troop movements near Finland raise a key question: Why is Russia reallocating military resources northward when it still faces acute shortages of trained personnel and equipment on the Ukrainian front?

"The new troops and bases near the Finnish border are a particularly strong indicator that Russia is moving to beef up its forces in preparation for a potential invasion," said Minna Alander, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

That threat is compounded by geography.

With Finland's accession to NATO in 2023, the alliance's land border with Russia doubled to over 2,549 kilometers, stretching from Norway to Poland. Any conflict with NATO now requires Russia to defend a vastly extended front.

"Any attack on NATO countries… is now contingent on Russia's ability to simultaneously defend the full length of the NATO-Russia border," Alander said.

Still, some analysts see the current buildup as more psychological than tactical -- at least for now.

"There's obviously a deterrence and intimidation element to all of this," said Hill. "What it is is a signal to Finland and to other vulnerable countries on the border that Russia is there."

Preparation timeline

The balance of power on paper seems to favor Moscow.

Russia maintains a military estimated at more than 3.5 million personnel, including 1.3 million active-duty troops and 2 million reservists.

Finland, by contrast, has about 24,000 active soldiers and another 870,000 reservists for a total of about 947,800 military personnel.

NATO intelligence assessments suggest the window to prepare for Russian aggression is shrinking.

In its February 2025 update, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service outlined three post-Ukraine scenarios:

• A local war with a neighboring country within six months
• A regional conflict in the Baltic within two years
• A large-scale attack on Europe within five years

"Russia views itself as being in a conflict with the West and is preparing for a war with NATO," the report said. "This does not mean that a decision to start a war has already been made, but Russia is arming itself and building the potential for making such a decision."

A separate report this month from the International Institute for Strategic Studies points to an even shorter timeline. It warned that Russia could present a "significant military challenge to NATO allies, particularly the Baltic states, as early as 2027."

Finnish defense officials say they are working with a similar assumption.

"We'll be talking about so much higher troop levels," said Brig. Gen. Pekka Turunen, director of Finnish defense intelligence.

Finland estimates it has roughly five years to prepare before the Russian threat becomes significantly more dangerous, he told The New York Times.