Russia's military recruitment crisis undermines its future

By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-05-16

To keep its war in Ukraine alive, the Kremlin is burning through its future.

Russia is plugging battlefield gaps with a mix of foreign fighters, coerced conscripts and even elite nuclear personnel, anything to avoid another politically explosive mobilization.

The result is a short-term fix with long-term consequences: eroded domestic trust, degraded military institutions and growing cracks in the strategic deterrent that underpins the Kremlin's power.

This was not the war President Vladimir Putin planned.

When he launched his full-scale invasion in February 2022, he imagined a lightning strike, a fast victory that would reaffirm Russia's power. What he got instead was a grinding war of attrition that has pushed the military to the edge and forced the Kremlin into increasingly desperate recruitment tactics.

Three years later, Moscow's attempt to dodge domestic backlash may be weakening the very system it relies on to project strength.

Recruiting foreigners

To replenish the ranks depleted by staggering losses, the Kremlin has increasingly turned to foreign fighters.

Mercenaries from at least 48 countries have joined Russia's "special military operation," drawn by promises of high wages, combat experience or even Russian citizenship, according to reports.

But not all volunteers are fully informed -- or willing.

In recent weeks, Chinese nationals have come forward saying they were misled into fighting in Ukraine after hearing promises of lucrative non-combat support roles. Ukraine said on April 9 that more than 150 Chinese mercenaries had joined Russian forces.

A similar case in 2023 saw Cuban authorities dismantle a human-trafficking network sending young men to the front under false pretenses.

According to one report, 1,500 foreigners visited a recruitment center in Moscow over the course of one year. Of those, the largest group -- at least 603 men -- came from Nepal between May 2023 and February 2024, IStories reported April 23.

Regardless of where they come from or how they are recruited, mercenaries have become a critical stopgap as Russia struggles to replenish its losses. The Kremlin rarely, if ever, reports casualty figures.

So far, the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been identified, according to a recent joint investigation between the BBC and the independent media outlet Mediazona. It adds that the true number is likely much higher.

An estimated 900,000 Russians have been killed or wounded since the start of the invasion, Britain's Ministry of Defense said in a report published in March. Of those, an estimated 200,000 to 250,000 may have died.

Coercive measures

Inside Russia, where voluntary enlistment has dwindled amid high casualties, authorities have adopted increasingly coercive measures to meet recruitment quotas.

In some regions, especially ethnic republics like Chechnya, potential recruits are told they will be mobilized anyway so they might as well serve close to home.

In others, law enforcement reportedly gives former convicts a choice: join the army or go to jail on fabricated drug charges.

Other cases suggest willing participants from poorer countries may be responding to financial incentives, but Moscow's growing reliance on foreigners to plug manpower gaps indicates a challenge: Russians themselves are unwilling to fight.

Short-sighted strategy

Russian job seekers responding to civilian engineering ads have discovered too late that authorities were funneling them to Ministry of Defense recruiting stations.

Meanwhile, the ministry continues to suffer heavy losses, losing an estimated 30,000 troops a month -- roughly equal to the number it recruits through this pressure campaign.

Perhaps most troubling for Moscow is the Kremlin's decision to use similar tactics within its elite nuclear forces.

Units attached to the 12th Main Directorate (12th GUMO), the branch responsible for Russia's non-strategic nuclear arsenal, are reportedly being diverted from their posts and sent to the front.

Social media posts by family members suggest some of these highly trained specialists were promised "safe" assignments at support facilities but instead found themselves in Ukraine, risking not only their lives but also operational readiness.

This short-sighted strategy of using elite units as cannon fodder jeopardizes Russia's ability to maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrent. It may also sow doubt among future recruits who once saw the 12th GUMO as a prestigious and safer military career path.

Moscow's dual-track recruiting strategy of coercing Russians while luring or misleading foreigners may help delay a politically dangerous second mobilization.

Still, the costs are mounting. As domestic trust frays and strategic deterrence weakens, the Kremlin may be chipping away at the very foundations it needs to hold its power together.