Kazakhstan's tough decision: should Russia build its nuclear power plants?

By Sultan Musayev | 2025-02-12

ALMATY -- Letting Russia build nuclear power plants in Kazakhstan would enable Moscow to impose its technology and in so doing consolidate control over the Central Asian republic's energy industry for decades to come, analysts say.

Kazakhstan recently announced plans to build three nuclear power plants.

"Soon we will sign the necessary agreements for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Almaty province," Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said during an expanded cabinet meeting with the participation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on January 28.

"We are completing an analysis of provinces to determine potential locations for the second and third nuclear power plants," he said.

"I am convinced that a large-capacity nuclear power plant is essential for Kazakhstan," Tokayev told state-owned newspaper Ana Tili (Mother Tongue) in an interview published January 3.

"Moreover, I do not rule out the possibility of starting the construction of a second, and perhaps even a third, nuclear power plant in the near future," he said.

The country's first nuclear power plant is slated to be built on the shores of Lake Balkhash in Karaganda province.

Facing divided public opinion about bringing nuclear power to Kazakhstan, the authorities held a referendum in October. More than 70% of voters approved.

A choice made under pressure

The key question of who will build the plant is still open.

The short list of potential technology providers for the plant's construction follows: Russian state corporation Rosatom, Chinese company CNNC, French company EDF and South Korean company KHNP.

Kazakhstan is considering them for subsequent projects too. However, the government has not yet divulged its final choice or even the stages of talks with the companies.

All that is known for certain is that the government plans to form an international consortium that could include a maximum of five countries. These countries will be announced in the first half of this year.

Observers are predominantly concerned that the plans to create a consortium are just a formality and that Astana decided long ago in favor of Russia -- under pressure.

Kazakh media reported that right after the October referendum, Rosatom director Alexey Likhachev requested a personal meeting with Tokayev and Bektenov to discuss "prospects for cooperating in the nuclear arena," citing Likhachev's official letter.

However, for some reason the meeting did not take place.

Later, ahead of his visit to Astana in November, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the government-owned newspaper Kazakhstanskaya Pravda that Rosatom was developing for Kazakhstan a design "that uses the most advanced technologies and complies with the most stringent environmental requirements and safety standards."

When he was in Astana, Putin raised the issue of the power plant during a face-to-face meeting with Tokayev, the Kazakh president told journalists. Neither side disclosed what agreements they reached.

A major mistake

The Russian president is doing everything he can to achieve a solution that benefits Russia, said Dosym Satpayev of Almaty, a political analyst and director of the Risk Assessment Group.

"Putin is the main driving force behind and lobbyist for building a Russian nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan," Satpayev told Global Watch.

Selecting Russia would be a major mistake because any relationship with Rosatom, whose subsidiaries are under sanctions, is linked to a high risk of running into incidental problems, he said.

"Rosatom is a toxic organization, while the future ... plant is a strategic project for Kazakhstan," Satpayev said.

At the same time, Satpayev does not harbor any illusions. In the end, only Russia and China will remain on the short list because France and South Korea will not work in a consortium with Russia, he said.

Building the plant next to Lake Balkhash with Russian technology will greatly threaten Kazakhstan's energy security, he emphasized.

Russia will expand its influence over Kazakhstan's energy industry after already gaining control of key uranium deposits in the Central Asian republic.

Those newly acquired Russian assets include the Budenovskoye mine in southern Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest uranium deposits, Global Watch reported in January.

'Not a friendly action'

Meanwhile, Russian media are promoting the notion that Kazakhstan should favor Russia exclusively.

In November the Neftegaz.ru oil and gas news site rebuked Kazakhstan merely because it was choosing between partners.

"It is logical and obvious that Russia should build the nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan," the outlet wrote, arguing that Rosatom is the global leader in nuclear power and that the two countries border each other, so "building is simpler."

"But recently Kazakhstan started squirming when it came to choosing a contractor to build the nuclear power plant when it announced that an international consortium would build the first such plant in the country," Neftegaz.ru wrote. "That's not a friendly action."

The Kazakh public views such propaganda as part of the pressure from the Kremlin.

"They've already tried to intimidate us repeatedly, like when they blocked the export of Kazakh oil to Europe [in 2022], which generated huge losses for the country," said Olzhas Beksultanov of Almaty, an activist with the Oyan, Qazaqstan (Wake Up, Kazakhstan) political movement.

"I can't imagine how our government can ... say no to Moscow on such a strategic matter as building a nuclear power plant," he told Global Watch.

Nuclear power and geopolitics

A future plant controlled by Rosatom would give the Kremlin strategic influence over Astana's policies and signing such a contract will bind Kazakhstan for decades to Russian technologies, fuel and repairs, critics say.

Pessimistic predictions abound.

Nuclear power goes hand in hand with geopolitics and Kazakhstan needs to weigh its decisions carefully, said Kaisha Atakhanova, a biologist who won the Goldman Environmental Prize.

"We saw how the Russian army seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine [in 2022] and how Russia used the situation for its own military objectives," Atakhanova told Global Watch. "You can't dismiss events like that."

Analysts say the Kazakh government understands these risks but that there is no real choice because "as the geopolitical situation gets more complicated, it's harder and harder for Astana to strike a balance," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)'s Kazakh service wrote last November.

The war in Ukraine has shown how touchy Russia can be about attempts to break away from its grip. Kazakhstan and Russia share the world's longest continuous border.

"Kazakhstan doesn't have the luxury of provoking Russia," Edward Lemon, a Central Asia scholar at Texas A&M University, told RFE/RL's Kazakh service last November.