US prepares to expand nuclear capabilities in face of growing threats

By Global Watch | 2024-11-26

The United States has been considering its efforts to deter nuclear aggression by Russia, China and North Korea, including potentially expanding its nuclear forces, the Wall Street Journal reported in mid November.

The current administration earlier this year signed its "Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance," to develop options to simultaneously deter aggression by China, Russia and North Korea.

The policy focuses on the development of advanced non-nuclear systems and deepened collaboration and cooperation with allies in Europe and Asia.

The Pentagon also is preparing options to deploy more nuclear warheads if those efforts fail, according to the November 14 report.

To deal with "multiple adversaries who are making nuclear weapons more central to their national security strategies... it may be necessary to adapt current US nuclear force capability, posture, composition, or size," a report on the nuclear employment guidance sent to Congress on November 15 noted.

The report pointed to Russia's "modern, and diversified nuclear arsenal of strategic and theater-range weapons" and its "pursuit of novel nuclear systems."

At the same time, China "has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad," it said.

North Korea "continues to expand, diversify, and improve its nuclear, ballistic missile, and non-nuclear capabilities," the report added.

Making the situation even more challenging is growing cooperation among Russia, North Korea, China and Iran, the report noted.

In recent months, Russia has been helping China enhance its offensive and defensive capabilities, including the development of a new missile attack early warning system and advanced conventional submarines. For its part, China has helped Russia produce long-range attack drones for use in Ukraine, according to a report by the US Army's Strategic Studies Institute published September 18.

Meanwhile, on October 31, North Korea conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test in direct violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions just after Pyongyang deployed about 13,000 soldiers to Russia to aid in the war against Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine in particular has become a flashpoint of nuclear tensions, with Moscow having altered Russian nuclear doctrine to signal to Western states its willingness to respond to a conventional attack with nuclear force.

Arms control

The latest update to US nuclear arms policy also comes as arms control agreements have started to unravel.

In comments to the Wall Street Journal, a US administration official said, "If current trends continue in the negative direction with Russia saying 'no' to arms control, China building up and North Korea building up, there may be a need to increase the number of deployed US nuclear weapons in the future."

For decades, the United States focused on moderating and progressively reducing armaments by engaging with nuclear states such as Russia and signing reciprocal agreements.

New Start, signed in 2010, limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 strategic weapons each. The treaty is set to expire in February 2026 with no current talks to replace or renew the treaty ongoing between the United States and Russia.

Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in March 2023, but current estimates indicate that Moscow has continued to observe warhead limits.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's alterations to Russian nuclear doctrine have diminished hopes for denuclearization and moderation through treaties and international dialogue.

Meanwhile, China has consistently stonewalled on the idea of nuclear talks, refusing to engage with recent US administrations.

China is likely to have more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, most of which will be capable of reaching the United States, a publicly available report by the Defense Intelligence Agency found.