N. Korea's provocations, alliance with Russia risk escalating global tensions

By Global Watch and AFP | 2024-11-12

SEOUL -- Several concerning provocations by nuclear-armed North Korea against South Korea, since solidifying its alliance with Russia in the war against Ukraine, could have a ripple effect across the region, analysts say.

Pyongyang staged Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming attacks on November 8-9, an operation that affected several ships and dozens of civilian aircraft in South Korea, Seoul's military said.

The jamming allegations come after the North on October 31 test-fired what it said was its most advanced and powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) -- its first such launch since being accused of sending soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine.

Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a key spokesperson, said the drill was "absolute proof of the validity and urgency of the line of building up the nuclear forces we have opted for and put into practice."

The South fired its own ballistic missile into the sea November 8 in a show of force aimed at demonstrating its resolve to respond to "any North Korean provocations."

"It remains unclear whether there is an intention to divert the world's attention from troop deployments, instill psychological insecurity among residents in the South or respond to Friday [November 8]'s drills," Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.

"However, GPS jamming attacks pose a real risk of serious incidents, including potential aircraft accidents in the worst-case scenario."

Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher who runs the World Institute for North Korea Studies, told AFP the North's jamming could be "to shield their own communications and intelligence exchanges during critical military operations" both at home and abroad.

ICBM tests

Relations between the two Koreas are at an ebb not seen in years.

North Korea has been bombarding the South with trash-carrying balloons since May, what it terms retaliation for anti-Pyongyang propaganda missives sent North by activists.

On November 5, Pyongyang launched a number of short-range ballistic missiles into waters east of the Korean peninsula.

World leaders condemned the North's latest missile tests.

"These launches, as well as last week's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, are in violation of multiple United Nations [UN] Security Council resolutions," a US State Department spokesperson said November 5, adding that they "undermine the global nonproliferation regime."

At the UN, 10 of the 15 members of the Security Council issued a joint statement November 5, urging North Korea to give up its ballistic missile program.

In Japan, top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi said the North's "repeated launches of ballistic missiles threaten the peace and security of our country."

"Given it was a salvo of short-range missiles, the North is indicating that it not only has long-range missiles capable of reaching the US but also short-range ones to target all bases in South Korea and Japan," Han Kwon-hee of the Korea Association of Defense Industry Studies told AFP.

With its recent testing spate, "Pyongyang is showing that its contribution of weapons and troops to Russia's war in Ukraine does not curtail its military activities closer to home," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

"On the contrary, cooperation with Moscow appears to enable blatant violations of UN Security Council resolutions."

N. Korea-Russia alliance

North Korea on November 12 ratified a landmark defense pact with Russia, formalizing months of tightening military bonds between the two nations.

The deal "was ratified as a decree" by leader Kim Jong Un, the Korean Central News Agency said.

The move came after Russian lawmakers voted unanimously last week to ratify the deal, which President Vladimir Putin later signed.

North Korea has become one of the most vocal and main backers of Russia's offensive in Ukraine.

Seoul and its Western nations have long accused Pyongyang of supplying Moscow with artillery shells and missiles for use in Ukraine, but that support has escalated in recent weeks with the reported arrival of thousands of North Korean troops prepared to engage in combat.

"More than 10,000 North Korean soldiers are currently in Russia, and we assess that a significant portion of them are deployed to frontline areas, including Kursk," Jeon Ha-gyu, a spokesman for the South Korean Defense Ministry, said November 5.

In exchange for sending troops, Russia is offering North Korea technological support that could advance Pyongyang's nuclear weapon program, the West fears.

"With bilateral ratifications, Pyongyang and Moscow will claim legitimacy for North Korea's military deployment to Russia, arguing that this action is justified by the ratified treaty between the two," said Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"While their treaty does not override UN resolutions prohibiting such cooperation, they will assert its legitimacy based on their agreement," Hong added.

"This raises the prospect of additional, potentially larger deployments of North Korean manpower to Russia in the future."