Putin issues empty nuclear threats amid failures in Ukraine

By Sultan Musayev | 2024-09-24

ALMATY -- President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials are increasingly issuing nuclear threats against Ukraine and the West, which some analysts say is a sign of worsening battlefield conditions for Russian forces.

Earlier this month, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, again spoke of the potential for nuclear escalation, identifying a broad reaction from the West.

Medvedev, a former president of Russia who is notorious for making incidental comments since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warned on Telegram that the West could face "irreversible consequences" if it continues to support Ukraine.

In a veiled threat, Medvedev noted that a nuclear conflict is a “very bad story with a very difficult outcome,” and that is why Moscow has not yet made a decision about using nuclear weapons.

"Russia has been patient. What arrogant Anglo-Saxon dimwits fail to admit, though, is that you can only test someone's patience for so long," Medvedev wrote September 14.

Nuclear rhetoric

His words carried an inexplicit warning as well: if the West continues to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles and allows it to strike targets inside Russia, the Kremlin may use nuclear weapons to defend its interests.

This was not the first time Medvedev resorted to nuclear saber-rattling.

In January he brought up the possibility of using nuclear weapons if Ukraine destroyed the S-300 missile launchers that the Russian army regularly uses to strike Ukraine.

Putin in June also hinted at the possibility of a nuclear strike against Ukraine, although he said Moscow did not need that option at the moment.

He also said the Kremlin could amend the country's nuclear doctrine to take into account "global changes regarding security."

In an earlier speech in September 2022, Putin said he was prepared to "make use of all weapon systems available to us" to defend Russia, clearly alluding to the nuclear arsenal.

"This is not a bluff," Putin claimed.

"Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around."

The rise in nuclear rhetoric demonstrates that Moscow's position on the battlefield in Ukraine has worsened, and that the Russian leadership is worried about the West's growing support for Ukraine, say analysts.

In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the New START Treaty with the United States, which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed by Moscow and Washington.

This meant that the two powers stopped sharing information on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades.

In announcing the decision, Russia's Foreign Ministry accused the United States of "extreme hostility" and of expanding its nuclear infrastructure eastward in an attempt to undermine Russia's national security.

'Major blow for Moscow'

Russia's decision indicates that Moscow was "having a fit," said Dauren Ospanov, a retired Kazakh army major.

Above all, Russia's image as the second-strongest army in the world was tainted when the so-called special military operation failed, he said.

In February 2022, the blitzkrieg Russia launched did not achieve the intended result: instead of capturing Kyiv and establishing control over Ukraine in a matter of days, the Russian army got bogged down in a prolonged war, Ospanov said.

"After receiving robust support from the West, the Ukrainian army has been able not only to stop Russia's offensive and retake large swaths of territory, but also to continue defensive operations, and even [attack] Russia itself in Kursk province," Ospanov said. "This has been a major blow for Moscow."

Russian losses in the war have been severe.

By late February 2023, Russia's armed forces had losses of up to 250,000 people killed, wounded or missing, according to an estimate by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank.

This figure included regular army soldiers, contract soldiers and militia members of the unrecognized Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR and LPR) regions.

Russia made significant missteps in its strategy on Ukraine, according to CSIS. For one, the Kremlin was not prepared for the Ukrainian army to defend itself -- or for the West to provide military support to Ukraine.

Another important factor influencing Moscow's nuclear rhetoric is that Ukraine's Western allies are supplying long-range weapons, including missiles with a range of over 300km, enabling Ukrainian troops to strike military sites on Russia's home front, Ospanov pointed out.

The Kremlin's strategic game

In brandishing nuclear weapons as a threat, Moscow is playing a strategic game, analysts say.

The goal is to try to force the West to let up on its support of Ukraine or to compel Kyiv and its allies to come to the negotiation table on terms that benefit Russia.

However, hardly anyone believes this approach will work, analysts say.

As Russia experiences military failures in Ukraine, it is no longer viewed as the guarantor of security in Central Asia and Caucasus, and that is also considered a consequential setback to Moscow's image, said Dosym Satpayev, director of the Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group.

"Putin thought he could use nuclear threats to deal a strong political punch [to the West]," he said. "But this kind of rhetoric only ratchets up global tensions and on top of that exacerbates Russia's own troubled position."