Simulated strike: Putin's latest attempt at nuclear extortion

By Galina Korol | 2024-11-06

KYIV -- Russia's nuclear drills last week were an attempt at fear-mongering and raising the stakes at a critical moment in the Russia-Ukraine war, analysts say.

The October 29 training exercise involved Russia's land, maritime and aviation components of the strategic deterrent force.

The military test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a test site in the far-eastern Kamchatka peninsula, the Defense Ministry said.

The Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg nuclear-powered submarines also test-fired Sineva and Bulava ICBMs from the Barents Sea and the Sea of ​​​​Okhotsk.

In addition, nuclear-capable Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles.

Russia's state-owned TASS news agency published footage of a missile being launched in the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Russian Far North.

Russian President Vladimir Putin watched the drills from the Kremlin's situation room.

"In light of escalating geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is imperative for us to have modern strategic forces that are in a state of constant combat readiness," he said in televised speech. "We shall continue to enhance all their components, as we possess the necessary resources to do so."

The drills aimed to simulate the Kremlin's "massive" nuclear response to an enemy nuclear first strike, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin.

In a video call with military leaders, Putin reaffirmed Russia's view of nuclear weapons as "the ultimate measure for ensuring its security."

Russia's nuclear triad remains a "reliable guarantor of our country's sovereignty and security," he said.

'Restraining Russia'

Russia's nuclear deterrence forces have been in a "special mode of combat duty" since late February 2022 -- when the West firmly stated its support for Ukraine while Putin's plan to "capture Kyiv in three days" failed.

The next big step in the Kremlin's nuclear extortion came when Ukrainian forces liberated part of occupied Kharkiv province and the right-bank part of Kherson province.

"Putin really did order his generals then to prepare tactical nuclear weapons for use," said Yuriy Kostenko, a Ukrainian politician who served as the minister of environmental protection from 1992 to 1995 and as minister of the environment and nuclear safety from 1995 to 1998.

"Given that in this day and age it's impossible to keep any information hidden, the United States immediately activated its diplomatic levers," Kostenko told Global Watch.

A factor that helped induce Putin to ease off was the unequivocal position on the issue held by Global South countries -- including China and India -- which clearly communicated to Putin that using nuclear weapons was unacceptable and would draw a sharp condemnation, he said.

"That was enough to quell Putin's ambitions to use tactical nuclear weapons," Kostenko said.

Pavel Podvig, an independent analyst in Geneva who runs the research project Russian Nuclear Forces, agreed.

"As I see it, it's an understanding ... that on the battlefield [in Ukraine], using a nuclear weapon isn't effective, and using one with such a strategic purpose will provoke a harsh negative response," Podvig told Global Watch.

"This combination of factors is what has restrained Russia, it's what is restraining Russia now, and I think it's what will also keep Russia from taking this kind of action in the future."

The bar for deciding to pull the nuclear trigger is now very high, he said.

Psychological maneuvers

Putin nonetheless continues to brandish the threat of nuclear weapons.

In September, Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine to allow it to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack.

Under the new rules, ratified September 25, Russia also considers any attack by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear power as a joint attack by both, in a seeming reference to Ukraine.

Putin continued his nuclear propaganda last month, accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of provocation and of wanting Ukraine to have nuclear weapons.

"Any step in this direction will meet an adequate response," Putin said October 18 ahead of the BRICS summit, which Russia hosted.

The Kremlin drew these conclusions after Zelenskyy spoke at a news conference in Brussels on October 17 comparing the security provided by nuclear weapons and NATO membership.

"Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection, or we should have some sort of alliance," said Zelenskyy, who later clarified "we are not building nuclear weapons. What I meant is that today there is no stronger security guarantee for us besides NATO membership."

"Putin is simply continuing to discredit Ukraine ... because he knows full well that the West is reacting negatively to the prospect of the proliferation of nuclear weapons," said Yevhen Mahda, director of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv.

"[Putin] is therefore using this issue to his advantage," he told Global Watch.

Putin exploits the notion of "responding with all possible means" whenever he wants to influence any of the West's decisions on providing military aid to Ukraine, he added.

"Putin fully grasps ... the fear of being the victim or target of a nuclear strike ... has been inherent to the Western world since the Cold War," Mahda said. "He's using this idea thoroughly in his own interest and will continue to do so in the future."

Even the adjustments of Moscow's nuclear doctrine are merely a mind game, analysts say.

"It was a psychological maneuver to pressure the Western countries, which were discussing whether to permit Ukraine to use long-range weapons," Mahda said. "Putin basically faked them out and forced them to deny this authorization."

The announcement about revising the doctrine worked in Putin's favor, agreed Podvig.

"All these documents were deliberately worded vaguely," he said. "Ultimately I don't see any drastic changes in the doctrine, and I think that the situation will remain the same."