Russia's failures warn China about Taiwan

Global Watch | 2026-01-15

As Ukraine continues to defy expectations with its resilience and ingenuity, the conflict has become a masterclass in the dangers of underestimating a determined adversary.

For China, watching from the sidelines, the lessons from Russia's missteps in Ukraine are impossible to ignore. While Beijing's focus remains on Taiwan, the parallels between Moscow's failed invasion and the potential risks of a Chinese escalation across the Taiwan Strait are striking.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was predicated on a series of flawed assumptions that its military superiority would guarantee a swift victory, that Ukraine's resistance would crumble and that the West would remain divided and hesitant.

Instead, the war has exposed the limits of brute force in the face of a united, well-supported and highly motivated defender.

For China, which has long viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reclaimed, the Russian experience offers a sobering preview of the potential costs of miscalculation.

Rehearsal for conflict

While Russia's narrative strategy has relied on crude denial and domestic propaganda, China's approach to the Ukraine conflict has been far more sophisticated.

Beijing has positioned itself as a concerned global statesman, warning against "uncontrolled escalation" and framing Ukrainian strikes as reckless provocations. This narrative allows China to maintain a veneer of neutrality while subtly advancing its own geopolitical goals.

By casting the conflict as a dangerous game of great-power rivalry, Beijing deflects attention from Russia's initial aggression and shifts the focus onto the West's role in supporting Ukraine.

This strategy is not just about Ukraine, it is a rehearsal for how China might frame its own actions in a potential Taiwan conflict. Beijing's messaging emphasizes restraint and peace, but its military buildup and increasingly aggressive posture in the Taiwan Strait tell a different story.

The parallels to Russia's pre-invasion rhetoric are hard to ignore, and the international community should take note of how China is carefully shaping its narrative to prepare for future contingencies.

If Russia's failures in Ukraine have taught the world anything, it is that smaller nations with strong international support and a will to fight can defy even the most powerful adversaries.

Taiwan, like Ukraine, has spent years preparing for the possibility of invasion. Its military strategy is built around asymmetric warfare, leveraging advanced technology, geographic advantages and a highly motivated population to counter China's numerical superiority.

Taiwan's strategic importance to the global economy, particularly as a hub for semiconductor manufacturing ensures that any conflict would draw swift and significant international attention.

Just as the West rallied to Ukraine’s defense, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely trigger a similar response, with devastating consequences for Beijing's economy and global standing.

Cost of war

Russia's war in Ukraine has come at an enormous cost, both economically and strategically.

Sanctions have crippled its economy, its military has suffered catastrophic losses, and its global reputation has been tarnished. For China, which is far more integrated into the global economy than Russia, the stakes would be even higher.

A conflict over Taiwan would disrupt global trade, alienate key partners and invite economic retaliation on a scale that could destabilize China's domestic stability.

Beijing's leaders should carefully consider the risks of following in Moscow's footsteps. The world has seen the consequences of underestimating a determined defender, and the international community has shown that it will not stand idly by in the face of aggression. For China, the path forward is not through escalation but through dialogue and diplomacy.

As Beijing weighs its options in the Taiwan Strait, it would do well to heed the lessons of Russia's failures. The modern battlefield is no longer defined solely by military might -- it is shaped by resilience, innovation and the will to fight for freedom. Taiwan, like Ukraine, embodies these qualities, and any attempt to subjugate it would come at an unthinkable cost.

The world is watching, and the message is clear: aggression will not go unchallenged, and the will to resist will always outweigh the might of those who seek to dominate.