How Zapad 2025 war games highlighted regional instability, not power

Global Watch | 2025-09-22

The recently concluded Zapad 2025 war games, a joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus, have drawn sharp scrutiny from NATO and neighboring countries.

While Moscow and Minsk touted the drills as a demonstration of their military readiness, the exercise has instead highlighted the risks of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and underscored the limitations of their alliance in the face of NATO's superior capabilities.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that the Zapad drills included rehearsals for launching Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed on Belarusian soil. These weapons, under Moscow's command and control, were integrated into the exercises alongside Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic missile.

While Lukashenko claimed the drills were defensive in nature, the inclusion of nuclear weapons has raised alarms across NATO, particularly in neighboring Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

The presence of these weapons in Belarus introduces significant risks. By hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons, Belarus has made itself a target in any future conflict, further destabilizing the region. Lukashenko's assertion that "we are practicing everything there" only reinforces concerns that Belarus is becoming a staging ground for Russian aggression, rather than a sovereign actor in its own right.

A show of force or weakness?

While Russia and Belarus sought to portray Zapad 2025 as a display of strength, the exercise revealed notable shortcomings. Despite the participation of 100,000 troops and 10,000 pieces of military equipment, the drills lacked the scale, complexity and interoperability seen in NATO exercises.

For example, NATO's recent Steadfast Defender exercise involved over 40,000 troops from multiple allied nations, demonstrating seamless coordination across land, sea, air and cyber domains.

In contrast, Zapad 2025 relied heavily on scripted scenarios and showcased limited joint operational capabilities. The use of Tu-160 bombers and MiG-31 fighter jets over the Barents Sea, while visually striking, did little to demonstrate the kind of integrated, multi-domain operations that define modern warfare.

The rehearsal of nuclear weapon launches, while provocative, underscored the reliance of Russia and Belarus on Cold War-era tactics rather than innovative strategies. NATO's focus on advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cyber defense, places it far ahead of the capabilities displayed during Zapad.

Risks of escalation

The Zapad exercises also highlighted the risks of miscalculation and escalation. Just days before the drills, Polish and NATO forces intercepted Russian drones that entered Polish airspace, raising tensions in the region. The inclusion of nuclear-capable weapons in the exercises only adds to the potential for misunderstandings that could spiral into conflict.

Belarus's role in the drills further complicates the situation. By allowing Russian forces to use its territory for military operations, Belarus has tied its security to Moscow’s ambitions. Lukashenko's decision to host tactical nuclear weapons not only increases the risk to his own country but also undermines regional stability.

Rather than intimidating its neighbors, the Zapad drills have reinforced the perception that Russia and Belarus are relying on outdated strategies and dangerous brinkmanship.

As NATO continues to invest in modern capabilities and strengthen its alliances, the risks posed by exercises like Zapad 2025 only serve to highlight the need for a united and prepared response to regional instability.