Under the ice: Strategic uncertainty in the Arctic's emerging cold front

By Global Watch | 2025-08-06

While the Arctic may appear dominated by Russia and China, true strategic power in the High North rests with NATO.

Backed by world-class submarine fleets, superior interoperability and unmatched technological integration, NATO holds the long-term advantage.

Beneath the surface, NATO's stealth, mobility and coordinated defense posture define the balance. As Russia contends with aging platforms, a struggling defense industrial base and recent losses of strategic assets, the façade of its Arctic primacy is beginning to crack.

Russia's Arctic footprint: a fortress of ice

With almost 24,000km of Arctic coastline, Russia has invested heavily in looking like the regional hegemon. It has reactivated or constructed more than 50 military outposts above the Arctic Circle and deployed air defense systems, early-warning radars and specialized Arctic brigades.

Its submarine fleet is the largest operating in the Arctic, including the nuclear-powered Borei and Yasen classes, capable of ballistic and cruise missile strikes. Its strategic bombers, such as the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS, regularly fly Arctic patrols, while the MiG-31BM interceptor has been tailored for high-latitude operations.

China's peripheral presence: a watchful stakeholder

Though geographically removed, China has declared itself a "near-Arctic state" and has incorporated the Arctic into its Belt and Road Initiative. It has launched scientific research missions, constructed ice-class vessels and opened dialogues with Nordic nations. Yet militarily, China's Arctic posture remains embryonic. It lacks bases, under-ice capability and sustained presence.

Beijing has clear ambitions -- energy access, shipping lanes and strategic influence. Its reach into the High North, though, remains limited and observational.

The NATO equation: mobility, interoperability, strategic depth

Where Russia relies on proximity, NATO relies on depth, technology and coordination. The United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Denmark and others contribute to a distributed but potent Arctic presence.

The United States maintains air dominance from Alaska -- fielding F-22s and F-35s and B-52 patrols. However, it is the US submarine force that provides the most formidable and elusive Arctic capability.

American Ohio-class strategic submarines and Virginia-class attack submarines can traverse the Arctic Ocean submerged, enter from multiple access points and remain undetected despite Russia's undersea sensor network.

NATO allies have stepped up. Norway fields Arctic-hardened P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and leads regular surveillance in the Barents Sea. The United Kingdom's Astute-class submarines operate under the ice, integrated with US missions. Canada and Denmark, via Greenland, serve as gatekeepers between the North American and European Arctic.

Importantly, these nations do not operate in isolation. Exercises such as Arctic Edge, Cold Response and Dynamic Mongoose demonstrate NATO's increasing coordination, mobility and readiness across Arctic terrain.

Submerged strength: strategic deterrence without borders

Perhaps the most understated dimension of Arctic power is the strategic uncertainty posed by submarine warfare. Russia may look invincible in the visible and near-shore Arctic space, but NATO's submarines render any perception of control incomplete.

US and allied submarines routinely operate in the Arctic without public disclosure. The vast, remote waters of the polar basin provide concealment ideal for second-strike capabilities. Even with Russia's fixed sonar systems and under-ice detection efforts, NATO's ballistic missile submarines remain effectively untraceable -- a fact that underpins strategic stability in both Arctic and global terms.

From the North Atlantic to the Pacific, these submarines can enter and exit the Arctic undetected, creating a deterrent ecosystem that is mobile, viable and strategically ambiguous. This ecosystem not only reinforces NATO's nuclear posture but complicates any adversary's calculations of regional supremacy.

A cold theater in a warming world

As Arctic ice retreats, geopolitical friction intensifies. The region is no longer isolated; it is integrated into global threat perceptions, resource calculations and military doctrines.

Russia's proximity and infrastructure provide operational speed and regional clout, but NATO's blend of technological precision, flexible basing and strategic depth offers an enduring advantage.

More than a new frontier, the Arctic may represent a return to old patterns -- of mistrust, maneuvering and competing ideologies in a cold setting. But unlike the original Cold War, this time the balance is not just in missiles or maps. It is in mobility, uncertainty and the quiet endurance of forces already there but never seen.