China fears strategic shift as Russia, North Korea deepen defense ties

By Robert Stanley | 2025-05-28

China's leadership is increasingly alarmed by the deepening military and diplomatic ties between North Korea and Russia, analysts say, as the once-reliable dynamic between Beijing and Pyongyang begins to shift.

At the heart of Beijing's concern is the perception that North Korea, long seen as China's dependent ally, is drifting away. In recent months, Pyongyang has emerged as a crucial supplier of ammunition and rockets to support Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine.

In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un confirmed on April 28 what much of the world had long suspected: North Korean troops are actively fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

In return, Russia has been sending North Korea oil, gas, advanced technologies and sophisticated air defense systems, including specialized missiles.

Moscow and Pyongyang formalized their relationship last December, when they signed a mutual defense treaty obligating both countries to provide military aid if either comes under attack. The treaty called for joint efforts to resist Western sanctions and marked a significant escalation in their cooperation.

'Axis of upheaval'

Shortly after the two governments signed the pact, South Korean officials said Russia had delivered antiaircraft missiles to North Korea. Other reports suggested that a recently unveiled North Korean destroyer -- said to be its most advanced surface ship -- likely incorporates Russian radar and engine systems.

"China has worked assiduously to convince foreign capitals that it is not part of an 'axis of upheaval,' or that it wants 'bloc politics' in Northeast Asia," Dennis Wilder, a former CIA deputy assistant director for East Asia, wrote in a recent post by the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Georgetown University.

"However, North Korea's actions now provide fodder for those convinced that this axis is forming or has already formed," he added.

North Korea reportedly began providing military assistance to Russia in late 2023 and has been deploying troops since October 2024.

Estimates indicate that as many as 14,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Ukraine. Around 600 are believed to have been killed in action, with another 4,000 wounded.

The growing partnership was formalized in June 2024, when North Korea and Russia signed a strategic pact that included a mutual defense clause.

This agreement complicates China's position, as it too holds a mutual defense treaty with North Korea -- originally signed in 1961 and most recently renewed in 2021 -- raising the prospect of China being drawn into a conflict it does not want.

Regional tensions

Beijing has long viewed North Korea as a difficult but useful ally. Pyongyang's hostility toward the United States and South Korea helps distract American and allied attention from China's own assertive maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

Yet an overt alignment with North Korea and Russia could damage China's efforts to project itself as a stabilizing regional power, analysts say. There's also a risk of domestic instability if unrest in North Korea were to drive a surge of refugees across the Yalu River into China.

Russia's support has not only emboldened Pyongyang but also eroded China's traditional dominance over North Korea's military development.

In testimony to Congress in April, US Forces Korea commander Gen. Xavier Brunson said North Korea now has "a Russian-equipped, augmented, modernized military force of over 1.3 million personnel."

"An emboldened North Korea, backed by Russia, could provoke regional tensions, undermining China's efforts to maintain a stable environment for economic development," Yao Bowen, a doctoral candidate at Nanyang Technological University, wrote in East Asia Forum.

"And aligning too closely with international pariahs risks alienating China's partners in Europe and Southeast Asia, complicating its bid to position itself as a global leader," Bowen said.

'Always together'

China may already be signaling its discomfort.

In April, Chinese authorities arrested a North Korean IT worker accused of stealing military drone secrets. The arrest "is an indication that China may be putting the screws on North Korea," Linggong Kong, a Chinese-North Korean relations specialist at Auburn University in the US state of Alabama, wrote in The Diplomat.

"There are signs that Beijing is growing frustrated with Pyongyang, not least over North Korea's increasing closeness with Moscow," he added.

The shifting dynamics were on quiet display during Moscow's Victory Day celebrations May 9, marking 80 years since the end of World War II.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the parade, while Kim Jong-un was absent. Instead, Kim visited the Russian embassy in Pyongyang, where he vowed to "consolidate and develop the long tradition of the DPRK-Russia relations, the noble ideological foundation and the invincible alliance," according to North Korea's state news agency KCNA.

"Pyongyang and Moscow will always be together," North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui declared during the embassy visit, KCNA reported.