Russia-N. Korea military pact undercuts nuclear nonproliferation efforts: analysts

By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-05-08

As North Korea backs Russia's war in Ukraine, observers warn that the deepening ties could derail efforts to curb Pyongyang's nuclear program.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un confirmed on April 28 what much of the world had long suspected: North Korean troops are actively fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

The acknowledgment marks a turning point in a rapidly deepening alliance between two of the world's most heavily sanctioned and diplomatically isolated regimes.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russia–North Korea relationship has evolved from cautious cooperation to strategic alignment.

Pyongyang, once a peripheral player, has emerged as a critical wartime partner for the Kremlin.

Beyond reportedly sending thousands of troops to the battlefield, Pyongyang has supplied Russia with military hardware, including ballistic missiles.

In exchange, the Kremlin has provided economic support and critical military components, such as radar systems and antiaircraft weapons, which analysts say North Korea is using to modernize its military.

This growing military collaboration, they warn, is a threat to global efforts aimed at containing North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

"The Russia–North Korea relationship strikes at the heart of the global nonproliferation regime, notably the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which has been the cornerstone of international arms control since 1968," wrote Shravishtha Ajaykumar, an associate fellow at the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, in a post published by the Observer Research Foundation on May 2.

Moscow and Pyongyang formalized their relationship last December, when they signed a mutual defense treaty obligating both countries to provide military aid if either comes under attack. The treaty called for joint efforts to resist Western sanctions and marked a significant escalation in their cooperation.

Shortly after the two governments signed the pact, South Korean officials said Russia had delivered antiaircraft missiles to North Korea. Other reports suggested that a recently unveiled North Korean destroyer -- said to be its most advanced surface ship -- likely incorporates Russian radar and engine systems.

Moscow has reportedly shipped oil to North Korea, a potential reward for Pyongyang's deepening involvement in the war effort against Ukraine.

Troops on the front lines

Last October, North Korea sent an estimated 12,000 troops to Kursk province, Russia, territory taken by Ukrainian forces in a surprise counteroffensive earlier that summer.

The Ukrainians did not withdraw from Kursk province until the middle of March.

As of April 30, South Korean lawmakers said roughly 600 North Korean soldiers had been killed in action and more than 4,000 wounded, figures they attributed to intelligence sources.

South Korea revealed those estimates just days after North Korea acknowledged for the first time that its troops are fighting in Ukraine.

This cooperation shows that "the North Korea–Russia relationship has moved beyond the merely transactional to become a longer-term strategic and ideological partnership," Dr. Edward Howell, the Korea Foundation Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House, a British think tank, wrote last December.

Accelerating weapon program

"This still-developing partnership poses a threat to the international community, by increasing the potential for regional conflict and undermining the current international order," Howell added.

Pyongyang is leveraging its newfound role as a wartime ally to accelerate its long-standing nuclear weapon program, say analysts. Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has steadily developed increasingly sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missiles, some capable of reaching the US mainland.

Despite years of sanctions and diplomatic efforts, the country has continued to make technological advances -- progress that observers say has been facilitated by growing Russian support.

"Russia has formally opposed proliferation but, in practice, has adopted a softer line than Western powers, often relying on engagement with North Korea rather than further sanctions, creating space for Pyongyang to continue its weapons development with minimal consequences," wrote Ajaykumar.

Howell at Chatham House echoed that sentiment. "Even if the eventual end of the Ukraine war reduces Russia's need for North Korean artillery, missiles and troops, Pyongyang will look to capitalize on its resurrected relations with Moscow to strengthen its domestic nuclear weapons development," he warned.