Russian corruption weakening Moscow's war machine against Ukraine

By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-04-08

Widespread, systemic corruption is crippling Russia's war machine by undermining its ability to ramp up weapons production and sustain its costly, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, helping tilt the battlefield in Kyiv's favor, a report found.

Higher corruption is "highly predictive" of war outcomes, Nathan Decety, a strategy consultant and captain in the US Army, wrote in a recent article for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a Washington-based security think tank.

"We find that a country half as corrupt as its foes is around 70% more likely to win a war if all else is equal," Decety said.

Rampant graft

Corruption is rife in Russia, which scored 22 out of 100 points and ranked 154th out of 180 countries in the latest Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International, the global graft watchdog.

It was the "worst performance for Russia in the history of the index," the assessment found.

A glimpse into the scale of the corruption came in December, when Igor Krasnov, Russia's prosecutor general, said that almost 30,000 Russian officials had been caught and disciplined for breaking antigraft rules in 2024.

At least half of all corruption cases involved bribery and almost 19,000 such crimes were uncovered in the first nine months of 2024, Krasnov said.

Assets, including funds and property -- worth the equivalent today of $7.6 billion -- have been confiscated in the past five years from officials accused of corruption, he said.

In the military, "corruption affects all aspects of the Kremlin's war machine, from purchasing decisions to battlefield performance," noted Decety.

Kickbacks are estimated to double the costs of military procurements, which make up about 40% of the Russian military budget, he added.

Defense spending

Moscow's poor performance on the battlefield can be explained in part by corruption, said Decety, who noted that the Russian military's march on Kyiv in 2022 suffered from a lack of fuel and spare parts for military hardware, some of which was not properly maintained as a result.

That decrepitude impeded the Kremlin's 64km-long convoy targeting the Ukrainian capital.

In 2024, Moscow spent more than $462 billion on the military, far more than all of Europe combined. However, that disparity is set to change in 2025, when states within the European Union are expected to spend some $540 billion on defense.

Unlike in Russia, most of Europe's money earmarked for defense should have an impact, Decety said.

"In the short term, Europe's comparatively cleaner defense environment will ensure its rising military spending stands a good chance of being deployed effectively, rather than lost in corruption," he wrote.

Corruption is just one of many mounting challenges Russia faces as the invasion of its smaller neighbor drags into its fourth year. The country's economy is strained by soaring inflation and labor shortages.

'Putin's folly'

Analysts at the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War have predicted systemic corruption in Russia is likely to worsen its economic burden from the war in Ukraine.

"Russia's mounting economic pressures stemming from the war, paired with widespread corruption, labor shortages and inefficiencies in Russia's DIB [Defense Industrial Base], will likely compound the cost of Russia's war and further undermine its ability to effectively sustain DIB operations while maintaining economic stability," it said in a report last December.

Russia's currency, the ruble, has taken a hit since the start of the war. It now trades at about 85 against the US dollar, compared with about 75 against the dollar before March 2022.

With his country facing pariah status as well as international sanctions, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has spent heavily on defense manufacturing, recruitment and payments to families of troops.

Russia increasingly is relying on Chinese yuan reserves and gold sales to cover its budget deficit, according to Ukraine's Center For Countering Disinformation. It noted that Russia's assets in its National Welfare Fund had dropped from $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion by December 1, 2024.

Russia has "squandered" more than $200 billion on its unprovoked aggression in Ukraine, former US defense secretary Lloyd Austin told the Reagan National Defense Forum last December.

"Russia has paid a staggering price for Putin's folly," he said.