Russia escalates meddling in Romania, Bosnia in bid to destabilize Europe

By Tony Wesolowsky and AFP | 2025-03-18

Russia is escalating its political interference in Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina, seeking to destabilize two key states in Eastern Europe as it wages war in Ukraine and confronts the West.

By backing pro-Kremlin figures and fueling nationalist movements, Moscow aims to weaken Western influence and disrupt NATO and European Union (EU) unity, while expanding its foothold in the region, analysts say.

In Bosnia, Russia has long supported Milorad Dodik, the Serb nationalist leader of Republika Srpska (RS), who has openly challenged the country's Western-backed government and pushed separatist ambitions.

As he faces legal troubles, Dodik is doubling down on his defiance, urging Moscow to block the renewal of an EU-led peacekeeping mission in the country. The Kremlin, eager to keep Bosnia politically fractured and out of Western institutions, has seized the moment to intensify its backing of Dodi's efforts.

Meanwhile, in Romania, Moscow has thrown its support behind Calin Georgescu, an ultranationalist who stunned observers by advancing in the country's 2024 presidential election -- only for Romania's top court to annul the results over Russian interference.

With a fresh election set for May, the Kremlin has accused Bucharest of suppressing democracy, while Romanian authorities push back against what they call blatant Russian meddling.

The stakes are high. Romania, a NATO and EU member, has emerged as a crucial ally for Ukraine, providing military aid and hosting Western forces near the Black Sea.

Bosnia, still struggling with deep ethnic divisions from its 1990s war, remains vulnerable to Russian-backed separatism. By stoking instability in both countries, Moscow is taking aggressive steps to undermine European security and weaken the West's resolve in supporting Ukraine, say observers.

The moves by the Kremlin come as Russia continues to face international isolation, including a growing raft of biting sanctions since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Global outrage has left President Vladimir Putin desperate for allies who will not only back or dismiss his country's unprovoked aggression but, more important, work to undermine Ukraine's allies in the West.

Avoiding 'security vacuum'

In Bosnia-Herzegovina, Russia has long embraced Dodik, the leader of RS, one of two entities that make up the fragile, multiethnic state.

However, Dodik faces mounting legal troubles. On March 12, Bosnian prosecutors ordered his arrest and that of his aides for ignoring a court summons. Dodik vowed to resist and refused to surrender.

"This is null and void business," Dodik said at a news conference in the region’s administrative center, Banja Luka, waving a copy of the arrest warrant.

Dodik also said he would request that Russia veto the extension of the European peacekeeping mission for Bosnia in the United Nations Security Council, which is due in November.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on March 10 that Washington was determined to avoid the dissolution of Bosnia.

Rubio's remarks came amid other Western moves to shore up support for Bosnia. NATO chief Mark Rutte flew to Sarajevo on March 10, stating the military alliance will not allow a "security vacuum" to emerge.

The EU peacekeeping force, EUFOR, said on March 11 that it had started deploying reserve forces to ensure stability and security but did not disclose how many additional troops would be involved.

Dodik has long been accused of undermining of the Bosnian state, corruption and promotion of separatism, prompting Washington to sanction him. US officials have accused Dodik of exploiting his position to enrich himself and his family.

"Despite its loud rhetoric, the Kremlin has not poured significant financial resources into RS. Instead, it has been stirring the Bosnian pot the best it can on the cheap," Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said last year in a Carnegie Endowment article.

"Day in, day out, Moscow obstructs Western policy through a long-standing alliance with the leadership of Republika Srpska," Bechev added.

Criminal charges

In Romania, the Kremlin is backing another controversial figure: the ultranationalist Georgescu, who surprised many by finishing first in the first round of the country's 2024 presidential election.

However, the Romanian Supreme Court ruled that the election be rerun, finding that Georgescu -- an unknown candidate prone to repeating Kremlin-friendly propaganda -- had benefited from Russian interference, including a TikTok social media campaign. The Kremlin denied the allegations.

Romanians will head to the polls to cast their votes in the first round of the new presidential election on May 4, with a runoff scheduled for May 18.

On February 26, Georgescu was questioned by police amid criminal proceedings on six counts, including "incitement to actions against the constitutional order," and misrepresenting his finances, according to prosecutors.

The charges also include alleged support for sympathizers of the Iron Guard, a pre-World War II fascist and antisemitic movement and political party, which is illegal under Romanian law.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on March 12 that banning Georgescu from the election rerun was "a violation of all democratic norms in the center of Europe," adding that any vote without his candidacy would be illegitimate.

The Romanian Foreign Ministry fired back, stating Russia was in no position to "give lessons in democracy."

"Russia has not had free elections for almost 20 years. An aggressor state cannot give lessons in democracy," the ministry stated.

That sentiment was echoed by Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of GlobalFocus Center, a foreign policy and security think tank based in Bucharest.

Romania's political turmoil "perfectly exemplifies how Russia can rely on domestic actors to do much of its bidding to weaken the EU and NATO," Popescu-Zamfir said in a Carnegie Endowment article in February.