Iran exploiting Sudan's civil war for strategic Red Sea access: report

By Robert Stanley | 2025-03-07

As the Islamic Republic's influence crumbles across the Middle East, it is seeking a military foothold on the Red Sea in Sudan, positioning itself to threaten global shipping routes and regain regional power, observers say.

Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssif held talks with Iranian leaders in Tehran in February, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the Sudan Tribune reported February 17.

While no formal announcement about an Iranian military presence in Sudan emerged, some see the visit as a major step toward Iran securing a strategic position on the Red Sea.

"Tehran's ultimate ambition is to have a direct naval presence in the Red Sea," Tareq Alotaiba wrote in a blog published March 3 by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

This presence would enable it "to disrupt access to two of the world's critical shipping chokepoints -- the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz," Alotaiba said.

Possible military arrangement?

Iran, seeking to take advantage of the civil war in Sudan to establish a permanent presence on the Red Sea, is directly supporting the Sudanese army, Alotaiba said.

The Red Sea is vital to the global economy, he added, as it carries 15% of global maritime trade and 12% of seaborne oil through the Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Sudan's civil war has left the country fractured and Iran is seizing the opportunity to align itself with the government of Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Alotaiba said.

While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly voiced support for Sudan's embattled government and promised investment, a military arrangement could be Tehran's real endgame.

Unlike Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia -- where multiple nations have naval bases -- Sudan has only a small Russian presence, making it an ideal location for Iran to extend its influence, Alotaiba noted.

A base there would put Iranian forces within striking distance of the key Saudi seaport of Jeddah.

A Red Sea presence is key to the emerging geopolitical strategy in the Middle East, with the Iran-backed Houthis' attacks on ships demonstrating the advantages of political power and the backing of sponsor states.

Tehran's declining global influence

The United States, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Italy, France, Japan, Türkiye and Israel all have military or intelligence bases along the Red Sea. A maritime coalition patrols the waterway, and the United States, United Kingdom and Israel have launched air and missile strikes against the Houthis.

Iran has been active on the Red Sea already, with an Iranian spy ship previously accused of helping the Houthis in Yemen coordinate drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels and on maritime patrols.

For Tehran, a presence in Sudan will help make up for some of the influence it has lost following recent crippling blows dealt to its main proxy, Lebanese Hizbullah, and the collapse of its key ally, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Yet the backing of the Sudanese government may not be enough for Iran to establish a foothold there, Alotaiba said, noting that Iran remains unpopular across the region.

Additionally, "the low penetration of Shia Islam in Sudan is a challenge to the Iranian regime," he said in the blog post.

Still, with Sudan's civil war grinding on, patrons and weapons are welcomed by all sides, and Tehran's decision to throw in its lot, with backing from Moscow, could open the door to significant arms deliveries, Alotaiba said.

'Difficult to dislodge'

Last year, Sudan denied Iran's request to let it build a permanent naval base on the coast to monitor traffic to and from the Suez Canal, the Wall Street Journal reported in March 2024, citing Ahmad Hasan Mohamed, an intelligence adviser to al-Burhan.

"The Iranians said they wanted to use the base for intelligence gathering," Mohamed told the newspaper. "They also wanted to station warships there."

To avoid alienating the United States and Israel, Khartoum turned down Iran's proposal, he said.

As Iranian influence expands on the Red Sea, the United States, Israel and the UAE are closely watching developments between Iran and Sudan, Alotaiba said.

"If the Iranians can entrench themselves in the Red Sea through permanent naval installations, they may be difficult to dislodge," he added.