China's focus on regime stability limits its military readiness, says report

By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-03-04

Despite the growing scale of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), its primary mission remains safeguarding the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rather than preparing for war, according to a report released by RAND Corporation.

Titled "The Chinese Military's Doubtful Combat Readiness," the report published in January highlights that the extent to which the PLA can leverage advanced weaponry in high-intensity combat remains uncertain despite China's military modernization.

The fundamental issue is that the PLA's core task is to uphold CCP rule, not engage in warfare, according Timothy Heath, a Sinologist and the report's author.

Since its inception, the PLA has functioned as the "armed wing" of the CCP, the report says.

Following the Korean War, the PLA has consistently prioritized "political reliability above combat readiness ... undergoing continuous ideological indoctrination, enhanced political control to ensure loyalty."

The military devotes significant time and resources to instilling CCP ideology and ensuring absolute loyalty, even at the expense of combat effectiveness.

For instance, as much as 40% of the PLA's training time is allocated to political education.

Taiwan: a political challenge

Since the 1990s, the PLA has expanded its arsenal of advanced submarines, fighter jets, warships and missiles. Many assume that this modernization effort is aimed at preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, which China insists is part of its territory.

However, the report questions whether Taiwan is truly central to CCP legitimacy.

It suggests that Chinese leaders appear reluctant to go to war, as there are no publicly disclosed military plans outlining how to defeat US forces or occupy and control Taiwan.

This vacuum raises doubts about the PLA's preparedness for a potential Taiwan conflict and its ability to confront US military intervention and suggests Beijing is more inclined to use economic, political and diplomatic means to influence Taiwan rather than resorting to military action.

The RAND report underscores that while Western analysts often see Taiwan as crucial to the CCP's legitimacy, this perspective may be overstated.

Beijing has ruled China for more than 70 years without reunifying Taiwan, indicating that legitimacy is not necessarily tied to the island.

When discussing the biggest threats to its rule, Beijing's leadership often focuses more on domestic instability, economic slowdowns and corruption rather than on Taiwan.

Furthermore, although China's leadership continues to emphasize Taiwan's reunification, Beijing has not set a definitive timetable or deadline for achieving this goal.

Contradictions

Despite ongoing military modernization, the PLA's actual combat effectiveness remains questionable, according to the report.

The report points out that the Chinese military's modernization process does not necessarily align with combat readiness.

Stability maintenance takes precedence over large-scale military action, and the CCP's political control over the military limits its flexibility in adapting to battlefield conditions, it says.

A significant portion of the military budget is allocated to conducting political oversight and ideological education to ensure loyalty to the CCP rather than to developing military tactics and combat capabilities.

As a result, even with advanced equipment, the PLA may lack the flexibility to deploy assets effectively in real combat scenarios.

With China's rapidly declining economy, the PLA's role in upholding CCP rule will likely become even more urgent. This priority could further undermine efforts to improve its warfighting capabilities.

Corruption remains a challenge for the PLA, recent reports suggest.

In November, the CCP suspended a top military official and placed him under investigation for "serious violations of discipline," a common euphemism for corruption.

Adm. Miao Hua had been a member of Beijing's powerful Central Military Commission, sitting alongside five other men -- including Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the top.

Underestimating China

The RAND report concludes that, at present, the likelihood of a full-scale, high-intensity war between China and the United States remains low.

However, some analysts caution against underestimating the risks of conflict, pointing to Xi's explicit military objective of Taiwan's unification -- potentially with the use of force.

"There are much easier, cheaper, lower-risk ways to maximize party security than the bespoke warfighting capabilities Xi concertedly pursues," Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, told CNN on February 17.

Former US intelligence officer John Culver in response to the report posted on X, "War isn't Plan A, but it is Plan B if events require."

Ultimately, only Beijing knows the extent of the sacrifices it is willing to make --both in terms of the PLA and Chinese society -- to achieve its objectives.