NATO 2.0: Russia's threats help alliance regain strategic focus 

By Sultan Musayev | 2024-12-04

ALMATY -- Russia's strategy of nuclear saber rattling -- a threat most nuclear powers do not invoke casually -- is having some unintended results for the Kremlin.

To name just a few, NATO countries have deepened their ties, the alliance has grown stronger and the role of the United States as a global military leader has been elevated.

In the decades since the Cold War ended, NATO has taken frequent criticism for losing its strategic focus. Many member countries dismissed the alliance as an outdated entity that was established to resist threats of the past.

Earlier this year, the German outlet Deutsche Welle (DW) noted that NATO "is facing a deep existential crisis."

French President Emmanuel Macron said in 2019 that NATO was "brain dead" as the US commitment to it declined, DW reported.

In September, after Jens Stoltenberg stepped down as NATO secretary general, the English-language publication Global Times -- the foreign ideological mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party -- wrote that NATO should "retire" because it "has not made Europe or the world more peaceful and secure."

However, Russia's nuclear rhetoric against Ukraine has ended up reinvigorating the Western military bloc, which amid the existential challenge is expanding and gaining strength.

'The Kremlin's nightmare came true'

Analysts point out that whenever Russia hints at using a nuclear weapon, it directly threatens all of Europe, prompting NATO countries not just to support the alliance but also to expand its military and political integration.

As an example, countries whose military spending used to be minimal have increased their defense budgets.

This year, 23 of the 32 NATO members will meet the target of spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, up from just three countries that invested that much a decade ago, Euronews reported in November.

Officials and analysts connect this growth to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to Moscow's aggressive rhetoric.

Furthermore, after Russia issued nuclear threats in the wake of a major military failure in autumn 2022, Finland joined NATO the following spring.

With that addition, NATO expanded its borders by another 1,300km right into Russia's backyard, said Arman Shurayev of Almaty, a public figure and former manager of Khabar and KTK, the largest Kazakh television channels.

"The Kremlin's nightmare came true: NATO has come close to St. Petersburg -- now it takes only a couple of minutes for missiles to reach Russia's second largest city," he told Global Watch. "This is a matter of strengthening NATO as Russia makes nuclear threats."

Finland is prepared for nuclear war -- like Sweden, the country has hardened shelters to keep residents safe from even the most intense bombardments, said Shurayev.

The upshot is that Russia's threats to use a nuclear weapon have had the opposite of the intended effect: NATO has become closer-knit and even stronger, Shurayev said.

'Washington is the guarantor of security'

NATO is becoming even more purposeful and prepared for action, and the United States is acting as the key player in this transformation, military analysts say.

Washington was always the leading force in NATO but Russia's nuclear rhetoric has made the United States an even more important player in Europe, Dauren Ospanov, a retired major in the Kazakh army and a former officer in the Almaty provincial garrison, said.

"As the threat of nuclear escalation looms, Europe's interest in military cooperation with the United States is surging because Washington is the guarantor of security for it," Ospanov told Global Watch.

This partnership is deepening.

The total US military contingent in Europe is growing. About 100,000 US personnel are stationed there, including about 20,000 troops whom the Pentagon rushed to Eastern Europe after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Moreover, in the coming years the number of personnel in Eastern Europe -- both from the United States and other NATO countries -- is expected to rise further, Military Times reported in April.

Testifying in April to the US House Armed Services Committee, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of US European Command, called the troop surge to Eastern Europe a "definite shift eastward" for NATO, and said that the infrastructure to accommodate more troops exists.

"Officials are planning to continue rotating US units into Poland and other Eastern European sites for the foreseeable future," Cavoli said, as quoted by Military Times.

Nuclear extortion backfired

Meanwhile, Russia's nuclear rhetoric is not only bolstering the United States' position in NATO but is also helping to strengthen it in the global arena, say analysts.

"More and more countries are starting to trust the United States more as a leader on security because of its principled stance on nuclear weapons," Ospanov said. "This [trust] is also shoring up Washington's alliances in other regions."

Russia's nuclear threats have boosted the US military-industrial complex, said Kaisar Isenov, an economist from Astana.

"Many countries that are frightened by Russia's actions have started to spend more on weapons, and the lion's share of these orders is going to American companies," he told Global Watch. "Along with injecting money into the US economy, this gives a big boost to the country's position in the world."

Many military analysts point out that Russia's nuclear extortion, which was meant to pressure the West with the aim of demoralizing it and undermining its unity, has in fact backfired.

As Russia brandishes nuclear threats, countries that may have wavered on matters of strategic choice are more inclined to reinforce their military alliance with the United States and NATO.

"So what is the end goal of Russia's nuclear rhetoric?" Ospanov said. "The Kremlin may be hoping to use it to squeeze out concessions, but the opposite is happening: its adversaries are only gaining strength while Russia is growing more isolated and weaker."