North Korea ICBM test sends message about Russian alliance, analysts say

By Global Watch and AFP | 2024-10-31

North Korea October 31 said it had test-fired one of its newest and most powerful weapons to boost its nuclear deterrent, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Analysts have speculated North Korea timed the ICBM test as a response to the flurry of reports that Pyongyang is sending thousands of soldiers to Russia to help fight Ukraine.

The ICBM launch is part of North Korea's effort to "reframe its troop deployment to Russia as a legitimate response to the threat" allegedly posed by other world powers, Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told AFP.

South Korea says that in addition to dispatching troops to Russia, Pyongyang has sent 13,000 shipping containers full of artillery shells, antitank rockets and missiles.

The launch was a "very crucial" test of an ICBM, Pyongyang said.

Such missiles have a minimum range of 5,500km and are primarily designed to deliver nuclear warheads.

The launch "demonstrates that Russia and North Korea, as nuclear-armed states, possess the capability to operate strategic nuclear weapons against the United States," Hong said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be signalling that "the North Korea-Russia alliance is, in essence, a nuclear alliance."

The United States called the launch a "flagrant violation" of United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions, saying that it risked destabilizing security in the region.

"The United States strongly condemns the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) intercontinental ballistic missile test," National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said in a statement.

Pyongyang is banned from tests using ballistic technology by multiple rounds of UN sanctions, but Kim has ramped up launches this year, with analysts warning he could be testing weaponry before providing it to Russia.

Do they work?

North Korea claimed to have successfully tested its first ICBM in 2017 -- the Hwasong-14, a missile capable of reaching Alaska -- and has rolled out bigger and more powerful weapons since.

North Korea fired what has become known as the "monster missile" in November 2022, and tested a solid-fuel ICBM last year.

The ICBM launch October 31 "reached an altitude of 7,000km and flew for 1 hour and 26 minutes," South Korean lawmaker Yu Yong-weon, who sits on the defense committee in parliament, wrote on Facebook.

"This makes Thursday's launch the longest ever by North Korea, and possibly by any country," Seoul-based specialist site NK News reported.

The duration and altitude indicate the North "tried to evaluate whether a heavy multiple-warhead ICBM can indeed reach the US mainland," Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.

All of North Korea's ICBMs -- including the October 31 launch -- have been test-fired on a lofted trajectory -- meaning up, not out.

Analysts question whether they could survive reentry into the atmosphere and prove accurate over greater ranges.

North Korean arsenal

Kim's arsenal is substantial: cruise missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and even a submarine-launched ballistic missile -- although Pyongyang's exact sea-based launch capabilities remain unclear, say observers.

North Korea has conducted six previous nuclear tests.

Kim toured a uranium enrichment facility in September -- with state media releasing images of it for the first time -- and Seoul has said "preparations at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County are nearly complete," for a seventh test.

By flexing North Korea's military muscle, Kim is sending a clear message to Washington, analysts say.

A functional solid-fuel missile "could enable surprise ICBM attacks on US territories without prior warning," Kim Ki-ho, a specialist on North Korea who teaches at Seoul Christian University, told AFP.