Analysts warn of severe repercussions if Russia turns to nuclear weapons

By Sultan Musayev | 2024-10-30

ALMATY -- Radioactive contamination, the destruction of its economy, international isolation and political instability are just a few of the dreadful consequences that will outweigh any potential strategic benefits for Russia if it deploys a nuclear weapon, analysts predict.

Since it invaded Ukraine nationwide in February 2022, Russia has publicly made nuclear threats on more than one occasion amid problems on the front.

While some observers say that the Kremlin intends only to intimidate Ukraine and the Western countries that support it to prevent attacks on Russian territory, others take the opposing view: if Russian President Vladimir Putin feels backed into a corner, he may actually press the button.

By all appearances, the risk of nuclear war was highest in fall 2022 during Ukraine's successful counteroffensive, when it took back a substantial portion of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

In March, citing two senior White House officials, CNN reported that from late summer to fall 2022, the US National Security Council held a series of meetings where it developed contingency plans "in the event of either a very clear indication that [Russia was] about to ... attack with a nuclear weapon" or if it did so.

"We had to plan so that we were in the best possible position in case this no‑longer unthinkable event actually took place," one of the officials told CNN.

The administration's fear "was not just hypothetical -- it was also based on some information that we picked up," the official said.

'The end of Russia'

Nuclear war was averted at the time, but analysts say that the threat has not gone away.

Even a limited nuclear strike on Ukraine would alter the course of world history and set in motion a series of irreversible consequences, including catastrophic events that will affect Russia above all.

Nuclear weapons are the last bargaining chip held by Russia, whose weapons on the front have proven to be less effective than modern Western military equipment, Talgat Ismagambetov, senior researcher at Kazakhstan's Institute for Philosophy, Political Sciences and Religious Studies in Almaty, told Global Watch.

"If Moscow uses a strategic nuclear weapon, the response will be equally destructive, and that will mean the end of Russia," Ismagambetov said.

But even if Russia launches a tactical strike, the military fallout will be rather severe for the aggressors themselves because red lines will cease to exist on the battlefield, Ismagambetov said.

Economic measures will ensue. It is very likely that the global community will impose broader, tougher sanctions not just on Russia but also on countries that are helping it to bypass current restrictions, Ismagambetov said.

"Also, Putin will find himself with serious problems at home," Ismagambetov said. "His approval rating will plummet even though it's already low amid the war in Ukraine."

Large protests will break out in Russia and new opposition social and political movements will form, he predicted.

"The Russians grew weary of the war long ago. Their patience is wearing thin," Ismagambetov said.

A nuclear strike could spur global political instability, said Kasybek Jolchuyev, a Bishkek-based security analyst and a commentator for Orbita.kg, a Kyrgyz news site.

"The United States and the NATO countries won't be able to ignore the use of a nuclear weapon in Europe. That will set off a new round of the Cold War," Jolchuyev told Global Watch.

Under such circumstances, Russia will not have sufficient economic resources to prevent a decline in the population's standard of living, which already is low, he said.

'A radioactive cloud'

Dinara Saparova, a Kazakh environmentalist, also offered theories about what could happen if Russia uses a strategic nuclear weapon.

"If it happens, we need to consider the extent of radioactive contamination: radiation will spread to the neighboring countries, including Russia," Saparova told Global Watch.

"A radioactive cloud doesn't recognize borders."

With favorable weather, the radiation will definitely spread to Russia's border regions, while in the worst-case scenario the radioactive contamination could reach Russia's central regions, Saparova said.

Radioactive contamination will affect rivers, lakes and farmland not only in Ukraine but also in Russia, Belarus, Poland and other neighboring countries, she said.

Dire effects on food security in the region will ensue: in the contaminated areas food and water will become unfit for consumption, and that effect could cause mass hunger and a mass exodus, she said.

"The long-term repercussions of radioactive contamination will be felt for decades," Saparova said.