Russian strike on Chernobyl fuels concern future attacks may unleash nuclear disaster

By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-03-03

A Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl nuclear plant has reignited fears over the vulnerability of Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure and the potential for a catastrophic radiation release.

On February 14, a suspected Iranian-made Shahed drone slammed into the New Safe Confinement at Chernobyl, the 108-meter-high structure encasing the damaged reactor at the former power plant to stop the spread of radiation.

Ukrainian officials said damage was minimal and no radiation was released, but specialists, including Dmitry Gorchakov, a nuclear advisor at Bellona Environmental Transparency Center, warned it may be just a matter of time before another such strike unleashes disaster.

"A potential full penetration of the new confinement and damage to the old sarcophagus could lead to the collapse of aging structures, the release of radioactive dust and its dispersion," Gorchakov said in a post on the website of Bellona, a Norway-based environmental nongovernmental organization.

Chernobyl lies along a flight path used by Russian forces in attacks on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, he said.

In 1986, a reactor at Chernobyl exploded during a botched safety test, resulting in the world's worst nuclear accident, which sent clouds of radiation across much of Europe and forced tens of thousands of inhabitants to evacuate.

Russia, which has targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure and other civilian sites during its more than three-year full-scale invasion, denied the strike.

However, an initial analysis of debris commissioned by Greenpeace suggested the weapon used was a Shahed drone, which Iran has supplied to Russia.

"The evidence points to a deliberate attack by the Russian military," said Shaun Burnie, a senior nuclear specialist at Greenpeace Ukraine, in a Greenpeace statement.

"Our analysts at McKenzie Intelligence in their latest assessment conclude that with the coordinates for the Russian Shahid drone preset and with a relative degree of accuracy of 10-15 meters, this would suggest a deliberate attack against the Chernobyl plant."

IAEA calls out risks of accident

Russia briefly seized control of Chernobyl in February 2022 at the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion.

Russian invading forces also captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and still maintain control at what is the largest such facility in Europe.

Meanwhile, Ukraine now more than ever is reliant on nuclear energy, with 15 reactors at four operating plants generating more than half of the country's electricity, according to a report by the World Nuclear Association.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Agency (IAEA), recently warned about the ongoing risk of nuclear accidents as a result of Russia's attacks on Ukraine's power grid.

"A nuclear accident can result from a direct attack on a plant but also from power supply disruption," Grossi said during a visit to Ukraine on February 4.

Grossi has long expressed concern about the long-term dangers posed by Russia's attacks on Ukraine's nuclear facilities, particularly the potential for further military escalation.

The ongoing concerns about the safety of the Zaporizhzhia plant spurred Grossi to lead an IAEA monitoring mission to the station by traveling through Russian-occupied territory for the first time, AFP reported on March 3.

Staff from the United Nations nuclear watchdog have been based at the plant since September 2022 to monitor its safety, with teams rotating regularly. Until now they have accessed the area via Ukraine-controlled territory.

Another growing concern is the country's nuclear switchyards, analysts say.

These external power supply stations, located outside the nuclear plants' perimeters, have become prime targets in the ongoing conflict.

In September, Ukraine and the IAEA agreed that the agency's experts would monitor the situation at key Ukrainian substations in addition to observing nuclear plants.

News outlets cited Oleksandr Kharchenko, a Ukrainian energy analyst, as saying that if just two of these switchyards were hit, Ukraine could face a power supply failure lasting 30 to 36 hours, with potential energy shortages stretching for weeks.

Such outages could delay the cooling of reactors, putting the safety of the entire region at risk.

More sanctions

While some countries have imposed sanctions on Russia's nuclear sector -- such as those targeting Rosatom, Russia's state-owned nuclear corporation -- these measures have not been enough to curtail the threats posed by its aggressive actions in Ukraine.

"So far Russian attacks on Ukraine's nuclear plants have not led to any serious sanctions against their nuclear industry. It's time to increase sanctions and pressure against the Russian government," Greenpeace Ukraine's Burnie said in his organization's statement.

Rosatom's annual revenue in 2023 amounted to more than $16 billion, up from about $12 billion in 2022, according to the Financial Times.

The company hopes to top $18 billion when 2024 figures come in. Moscow supplies 35% of nuclear fuel imported by the United States, while Europe relies on a similar amount, according to the US Department of Energy.

In January, then-US President Joe Biden sanctioned senior Rosatom officials, including its CEO, Alexei Likhachev.

These sanctions "may have a chilling effect on Rosatom's efforts to continue its dominant role in the global nuclear industry," predicted Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker, analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative think tank based in Washington.