Space: the new frontier of strategic rivalry

By Olha Hembik | 2026-06-15

Outer space is no longer a territory reserved solely for dreamers and science-fiction writers.

Space, long perceived primarily as a domain for scientific exploration, is now being deliberately transformed into a new theater of military operations.

The interests and ambitions of at least three major powers—the United States, Russia, and China—have collided in this theater. Other countries are also rapidly increasing their capabilities, hoping to secure their own share of the new frontier.

The genesis of orbital confrontation

The strike occurred in absolute cosmic silence, yet its effect was explosive.

In January 2007, China destroyed its own Fengyun-1C (FY-1C) weather satellite with a missile. The move not only filled low Earth orbit with thousands of pieces of space debris but also demonstrated to the world a functional anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon and Beijing’s strategic capabilities.

For the first time since the dawn of space exploration, Earth’s orbit became a theater for the demonstration of force and the starting point of a new space confrontation.

Military analysts were struck by the precision of the Chinese ground-based missile, which destroyed a refrigerator-sized target 864 kilometers above Earth. The test demonstrated China’s direct-ascent ability to destroy satellites.

Michael D. Swaine, former senior associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that China "directly challenged the United States while casting doubt upon its oft-repeated commitment to global peace and development and the peaceful use of space".

He concluded that the strike effectively ended the era of space as an exclusively peaceful domain.

The expert viewed China’s pursuit of ASAT capabilities as an attempt to level the playing field in potential future military and political crises with Washington, particularly given the United States’ heavy reliance on military satellites.

"Whoever controls space, whoever controls the satellites, gains a certain parity in the event of various military threats," Ukrainian political expert Oleksandr Antoniuk said.

According to him, China, driven by its ambition to become the dominant global geopolitical player, is now trying to catch up with the United States specifically in space technologies, and Beijing may use Russia’s resource base to achieve this.

"China will certainly use the Russian Federation as a proxy force, exploiting its resources, scientific developments, territories, and cosmodromes. Russia has a developed space infrastructure, but it cannot restore its space capabilities on its own,” Antoniuk concluded.

Over the next five years, China plans to launch space-based data centers for artificial intelligence.

The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) intends to "construct gigawatt-class space digital-intelligence infrastructure". These facilities will integrate cloud, edge, and terminal capabilities to process massive volumes of data directly in orbit, routing information to diverse users, including national security and military structures.

By 2045, Beijing has pledged to turn China into a "world-leading space power," potentially displacing the United States from its dominant position.

Dynamics of space warfare

In June 2019, NATO allies adopted an Overarching Space Policy detailing emerging space-based threats.

The alliance recognized that “potential adversaries” were developing destructive counter-space systems, which include the blinding, dazzling, spoofing, and jamming of space assets, direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles, co-orbital systems, as well as laser and electromagnetic weapons.

In 2024, the US Space Force monitored a series of low-Earth orbit maneuvers involving three experimental Chinese satellites, Shiyan-24C, alongside two Chinese experimental space objects, the Shijian-6 05A/B.

“That's what we call dogfighting in space,” said General Michael A. Guetlein, who served as the Vice Chief of Space Operations from 2023 to 2025.

He said America’s closest competitors were focusing on "practicing dogfighting in space with satellite-on-satellite" operations.

Guetlein’s statement came amid reports that more and more countries are seeking to develop technologies capable of countering space targets. Such technologies would make it possible to destroy or disable satellites, threatening disruptions to systems used in the military sphere, including communications and missile guidance.

Disruptions to navigation systems could destabilize the banking system and create problems for internet infrastructure, affecting virtually every sector—from aviation, communications, agriculture, logistics, and science to healthcare.

According to the European Space Agency, about 15,200 functioning satellites were in orbit as of April 2026.

About 130 million pieces of space debris are also in orbit. Fragments ranging from one millimeter in size to massive objects such as abandoned spacecraft and spent rocket stages are circling Earth simultaneously. Traveling at speeds of roughly seven to eight kilometers per second, they pose a threat to space missions.

More than half of all satellites belong to NATO members or companies based in allied countries.

NATO allies increasingly use satellites for a wide range of national security tasks and military operations around the world.

Two years ago, they already found themselves facing a Russian threat.

Nuclear weapons in orbit

In February 2024, the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies spoke out for the first time regarding an alleged Russian program to develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon.

Detonating such a device could disable hundreds of satellites in low Earth orbit, causing disruptions across multiple sectors. US officials said the suspected Russian test satellite linked to the nuclear weapon, Kosmos-2553, had already been in orbit for two years following its launch in February 2022. Moscow denied the allegations.

Later, reports emerged that Russia still planned to deploy a nuclear ASAT weapon to create a "space Pearl Harbor". The phrase, originally popularized by the 2001 Rumsfeld Space Commission, refers to a sudden, devastating strike on satellite infrastructure comparable in impact to the 1941 attack on the US naval base that drew the United States into World War II.

General Stephen Whiting, head of US Space Command, cautioned against the risk of a potential "space Pearl Harbor," describing Russia as a sophisticated space power capable of neutralizing low-Earth orbit assets early in a conflict. Meanwhile, senior military leaders have warned of broader systemic chaos, emphasizing how the disruption of space-based assets could paralyze civilian infrastructure such as aviation, communications, and global financial networks. According to Whiting, Russia is deploying operational anti-satellite weapons targeting high-value US government satellites.

In March 2026, US Space Command conducted the inaugural iteration of Apollo Insight, a classified command-post exercise simulating a notional worst-case scenario involving a weapon of mass destruction on orbital satellite infrastructure. According to defense reports, the exercise was driven by growing concerns over Russia’s anti-satellite weapons program.

The classified event involved US allies from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, as well as representatives from 62 commercial space companies.

Russia’s war against Ukraine underscored the critical role of commercial satellite networks such as SpaceX’s Starlink in maintaining battlefield communications. Exercise participants concluded that a nuclear explosion in low Earth orbit could disable or destroy thousands of satellites, severely disrupting military and civilian surveillance and communications networks.

Part of low Earth orbit could become unusable for up to a year.

For now, Russia has launched several “mysterious” satellites into orbit to track some of the United States’ most advanced intelligence satellites.

Defense experts emphasize that any Russian use of nuclear weapons in space would violate Article IV of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.

Such an action could irreparably damage the already fragile peace in space.