Despite military losses, Russia eyeing future conflict with NATO: Estonia

By Robert Stanley | 2025-03-05

Russia is laying the groundwork for a confrontation with NATO as Moscow expands its military and reinforces the western border in preparation for a potential future conflict, according to a new intelligence assessment from Estonia.

Despite Russia's heavy losses in the war against Ukraine -- at least 95,000 troops, according to a BBC analysis -- Moscow continues to strengthen its forces, integrate advanced drone technologies and escalate disinformation campaigns across Europe, the report issued at the end of 2024 by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) warns.

While a direct attack on Estonia remains unlikely in 2025, Estonian intelligence officials argue that any settlement allowing Russia to retain its territorial gains in Ukraine would embolden Moscow, while a frozen conflict would enable Russia to rebuild its military and reinforce its presence along NATO's eastern flank, particularly near the Baltic states.

Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that not only aims "to sustain its war in Ukraine" but sets the stage "for a prolonged confrontation with NATO," EFIS said, adding that the Kremlin's strategy "implies bolstering its western border with additional military units over the medium to long term."

'A painful lesson'

Preventing Russia from dictating the terms of a settlement in Ukraine is "essential" to "the security of the free world," Kaupo Rosin, director general of the EFIS, said in the assessment.

"There is no reason to believe that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has abandoned his maximalist ambitions, including the demand to roll NATO's military presence back to its 1997 boundaries, which makes it all the more vital that Russia leaves Ukraine with a painful lesson."

In the event of a Russian victory or a frozen conflict, Russian forces likely "will be permanently stationed in more significant numbers" along the Estonian border than before the invasion of Ukraine, EFIS said.

While a direct Russian military attack on Estonia remains unlikely in 2025, "Russia's policy towards us remains hostile, and its confrontation with the West continues," EFIS said.

Russian sabotage and disinformation efforts across Europe also are expected to persist in 2025, aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine.

However, Moscow's aggressive rhetoric on nuclear weapons notwithstanding, it is "highly unlikely" that Russia will resort to using them in the war, the report said.

Efforts to shift blame

Still, Moscow "seeks to maximize its fear factor to sway Western decision-making," it said. "Russia's nuclear threats have not yielded the desired results, causing frustration among the country's leadership."

The report points to Russia's ongoing efforts to shape the global narrative, including the false claim that peace negotiations could have succeeded in 2022.

This disinformation campaign is gaining traction in developing countries, where Russia seeks to shift blame for the prolonged war onto the West.

Beyond Ukraine, Russia is looking to reassert control over the South Caucasus, with Georgia being a key target for subjugation, it said.

Meanwhile, Moscow has launched a sabotage campaign in the West, using propaganda to revive fears of a "nuclear winter," the catastrophic aftermath of nuclear war posited in a Cold War-era theory, in an attempt to deter Western military aid to Ukraine.

China, while not directly supplying weapons to Russia, views Ukraine as part of Russia's sphere of influence and selectively supports Moscow in the information war, EFIS added.

Beijing's primary concern is countering US influence, and it would perceive a Russian defeat in Ukraine as a victory for Washington, it noted. China is using scientific collaboration as a means to acquire Western technology and bolster its own military capabilities, the report warns.