Iran inches closer to nuclear threshold as uranium reserves soar: IAEA report

By AFP and Global Watch | 2025-02-27

Iran has sharply expanded its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in recent months, according to a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report obtained by AFP, further intensifying concerns over Tehran's accelerating nuclear program.

The revelation comes just weeks after Iran unveiled new ballistic and cruise missiles and a report revealed that a secret team of Iranian scientists is working on a faster, less sophisticated method to build a nuclear bomb -- heightening fears over Tehran's military intentions.

It also comes as tensions between Iran and the United Nations (UN) nuclear watchdog have repeatedly flared since a 2015 deal curbing Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief fell apart.

The IAEA said in its quarterly report that it is of "serious concern" that Iran has an estimated 274.8kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% as of February 8. That's up by 92.5kg since the previous report in November.

That level of enrichment is a short step from the 90% needed to make a nuclear weapon.

'Of serious concern'

Tehran in December warned it would ramp up production of uranium enriched to 60% in response to the adoption of an IAEA board resolution that censured Iran for its lack of cooperation with the agency.

Iran had also announced that it would launch "new and advanced" centrifuges.

Tehran insists on its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and has denied it is seeking a weapon capability.

But according to the IAEA, Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to enrich uranium to 60%, which is higher than what's necessary to produce nuclear power.

"The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern," the confidential report said.

The rate of production of highly enriched uranium has jumped to between 35 and 40kg per month, compared to around 6kg previously, a diplomatic source told AFP.

'Comprehensive' assessment

In recent years, Tehran has increasingly rolled back its cooperation with the IAEA by deactivating surveillance devices needed to monitor the nuclear program and barring UN inspectors.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in a separate report said he would "produce a comprehensive and updated" report on Iran's nuclear program, including on the "presence and use of undeclared nuclear material in connection with past and present outstanding issues."

As of early February, Iran's stockpile of uranium at various levels of enrichment was estimated at 8,294.4kg, up by 1,690kg since the previous quarterly report.

The amount is more than 40 times the limit set in the 2015 accord with world powers.

The two reports come on the eve of the IAEA board of governors' meeting.

Efforts to revive the 2015 landmark nuclear deal -- bringing the United States back on board and Iran back into compliance -- have so far been fruitless.

Growing weapon capabilities

Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the possibility of direct negotiations with the United States on his country's nuclear program after Washington announced fresh sanctions on Tehran.

Iran "will not negotiate with a gun to its head," said Crisis Group analyst Ali Vaez.

Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from a 2015 deal with Tehran during his first term as president. The deal had exchanged sanctions relief for limits on Iran's nuclear program.

Fears over Iran's nuclear ambitions have been intensifying amid recent weapon developments and a report that suggested Tehran may be closer to producing an atomic weapon than previously known.

A February 3 report by The New York Times, citing fresh US intelligence, revealed that a secret team of Iranian scientists is working on a faster, less sophisticated method to build a nuclear bomb if the country's leadership gives the order.

This alarming development comes alongside Iran's recent displays of military strength, including large-scale exercises, the unveiling of new ballistic missiles and the showcasing of an underground military base -- further fueling concerns about its growing weapon capabilities.

The recent intelligence was collected in the last months of the administration of former US President Joe Biden, then relayed to Trump's national security team during the transition of power, The New York Times report said, citing unidentified officials familiar with the matter.

Saber-rattling

According to the report, the intelligence assessment warned that Iranian weapon engineers and scientists are seeking a shortcut to rapidly convert their expanding stockpile of nuclear fuel into a functional weapon within months, rather than the year or more it would typically take -- though this policy would require Tehran to shift from its current strategy, it said.

Iran and its leader, Ali Khamenei, have not made that decision to develop a weapon, the officials say.

Still, Tehran continues saber-rattling.

Iran unveiled a new ballistic missile on February 2 that has a reported range of 1,700km, AFP reported. State television broadcast images of the missile, dubbed Etemad, or "trust" in Persian, noting its range and calling it "the most recent ballistic missile" built by the Iranian Defense Ministry.

It also revealed a new model of cruise missile on February 1 called the Ghadr-380, which a naval commander said had "anti-jamming capabilities" and a range of more than 1,000km, according to AFP.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel -- the region's sole, if undeclared, nuclear-armed state -- would do "everything" to stop Tehran acquiring a nuclear weapon, AFP reported in November.