Horn of Africa 'on edge' amid growing risk of Ethiopia-Eritrea war

By Chelsea Robin | 2026-06-10

Ethiopia and Eritrea are at risk of sliding into war again, four years after a brutal civil war devastated populations across the two countries.

Simmering conflicts threaten to splinter the fragile peace established with the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, after two years of fighting killed hundreds of thousands of people, with some estimates as high as 600,000.

That war involved the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea fighting against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia's northernmost Tigray region.

But relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured, with their alliance disintegrating as quickly as it was formed.

Now, Ethiopian authorities are accusing Eritrea of military encroachment into its northern territories, destabilizing activities and interference in internal security -- including channeling arms to insurgent groups to fracture federal authority, the Nairobi-based HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a report published April 14.

Meanwhile, instability has spread beyond the Tigray region, François Christophe, a political risk analyst with a special interest in East Africa, wrote in an Atlantic Council blog May 22.

In the Amhara region, militias that once fought alongside the federal government, such as Fano, have now turned against it, while in Oromia, federal troops and drones are deployed against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Christophe explained.

"Fano is suspected of receiving support from the TPLF and Eritrea, and both Fano and OLA have reportedly cooperated with the TPLF and Eritrea on military planning," he said.

Asmara rejects the accusations, calling them "false and fabricated".

Eritrea also sees "Ethiopia's increasingly assertive quest for Red Sea access as an existential threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity," the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies reported.

'Powder keg'

The situation has worsened in recent months, with many observers warning about the prospect of renewed military hostilities.

"While neither side has announced direct military action, the tone has hardened significantly," the African Security Analysis (ASA) said in a situation assessment in February. "Diplomatic language has given way to sovereign defiance. Public messaging now emphasizes defense readiness rather than reconciliation."

Another war would again be devastating for all parties to the conflict, but also risks having "a powder keg" effect on the region, the International Crisis Group said in a February briefing.

"With several possible triggers, a slide toward hostilities would be easy to start but much more difficult to stop," it said.

"While all sides appear wary of igniting a new war, simmering grievances, overblown rhetoric and military preparations indicate that they are readying themselves for that eventuality," it added.

This time, a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would overlap with civil war in neighboring Sudan, which over the past three years has triggered what the United Nations calls "the world's largest humanitarian emergency".

Somalia is also on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe as drought, famine and political instability continue to plague the nation.

Samir Bhattacharya, an associate fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, said the threat of another war has put the Horn of Africa "on edge".

"If clashes erupt again between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the fallout would be far-reaching in an already volatile region," he wrote in a report published April 22. "It could destroy what remains of Sudan, destabilize Chad and create a corridor of instability connecting the Sahel to the Red Sea."

"The entire region hangs in a precarious balance," he said, urging the international community to help prevent another war in the region.

Roadmap to durable peace

"Peaceful coexistence between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been the exception rather than the rule across more than six decades," Ethiopia's Institute for Foreign Affairs (IFA) said in a statement May 25.

It outlined three conditions necessary for durable peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and for broader stability in the Horn of Africa.

First, normalization of the Eritrean state is essential.

"Eritrea is among the most closed states in the world to trade, investment and the free movement of persons," the IFA said, adding that these conditions make conventional diplomatic and economic relations "structurally difficult".

Second, sustainable peace requires the normalization of bilateral relations. This includes: a provisional settlement of border issues and disputes; a security framework providing mutual non-aggression and non-interference assurances; a framework for cross-border trade, investment and economic exchange; an agreement on transit, immigration, residence and family-reunification matters; and a maritime agreement that provides for Ethiopia's use of the port of Assab.

Third, long-term institutional partnership should be the end goal, rather than normalization.

"A Horn of Africa community founded on Ethiopia-Eritrea cooperation could, over time, provide the regional architecture for shared prosperity and durable peace," the IFA said.

'Near the brink'

The alternative to peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea is concerning, but not a foregone conclusion, analysts say.

"The probability of immediate war remains low -- but the probability of a triggering incident is rising," the ASA said. "This is not yet a war environment. It is a miscalculation environment. And in the Horn of Africa, history shows how quickly one can become the other."

Outright military escalation may still be avoidable, Christophe said in the Atlantic Council blog post.

"Both countries have hovered near the brink before, and the catastrophic cost of another war appears to be giving pause to both sides," he said.

"But there is a real risk that the current war of words spirals out of control, and Addis Ababa may yet decide to 'punish' Asmara for its coordination with the TPLF, Fano and OLA," he added.