The deployment of the Oreshnik: Putin's psychological warfare bluff

Global Watch | 2026-01-05

Headlines from Minsk this December announcing the deployment of Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles represent yet another act in Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-running production of nuclear intimidation, with Belarus playing the role of a compliant stagehand.

Far from signaling a genuine shift in military intent, this move amplifies rhetoric in a desperate bid to fracture Western resolve. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's confirmation that these weapons are entering "active combat duty" may seem like a dramatic escalation, but it is in reality more of the same.

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Belarus has served as a critical staging ground for Kremlin operations. Russian troops, drones, and missiles have all launched from Belarusian soil, but the country itself has refrained from direct military action.

This distinction is key: Minsk provides the platform, but Moscow directs the performance.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missile system, while technologically significant, does not alter this dynamic. It simply adds more menacing props to the stage.

The purpose of this deployment is not to prepare Belarus for an independent strike on Kyiv or NATO capitals. It is to project the threat of one.

This is psychological warfare at its core. By shortening the missile's flight path to Western cities and Ukrainian targets, Putin is sending a calculated message: "I can escalate this conflict at any moment, from multiple directions." His goal is to sow doubt and fear among NATO and European Union member states, pressuring them to reconsider their support for Ukraine. He wants Western leaders to flinch, to second-guess their commitments, and ultimately to push Kyiv toward a settlement favorable to Moscow.

Lukashenko's role in this drama is that of a willing accomplice, parroting lines scripted in Moscow while further surrendering Belarus' autonomy.

By hosting these weapons, he ties his regime's fate even more tightly to the Kremlin, transforming Belarus into a permanent military satellite of Russia. His pronouncements of sovereignty are hollow; he is not a partner in a war coalition but the manager of a forward-operating base.

The constant joint drills, the transfer of drones and the provocative airspace violations are all part of this theater of coercion. These actions are designed to keep NATO's eastern flank in a state of perpetual anxiety, creating the illusion of imminent escalation.

While the presence of advanced weaponry like the Oreshnik missiles cannot be dismissed lightly, it is critical to recognize the strategy behind these moves. This is not the prelude to a new front opening but a continuation of Russia's long-standing strategy of fear and intimidation.

Putin's nuclear rhetoric is not a sign of strength but of desperation. Recognizing this dynamic is essential to countering his strategy and ensuring that Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty continues to receive the support it needs.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles is a bluff, and the international community must call it with confidence and clarity.