Kinetic spillover: Russia's siege on Turkish sovereignty

Global Watch | 2025-12-31

For decades, the Black Sea was defined by the delicate balance of the Montreux Convention and the diplomatic tightrope walked by Ankara.

However, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine evolves into the world’s first high-intensity "drone war," the boundaries of this conflict are no longer confined to the Donbas or Crimea.

The "bleed over" of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology and kinetic action is increasingly encroaching upon Turkish soil and interests, revealing a pattern of Russian malign behavior that threatens to destabilize the entire region.

Kinetic spillover

The most visceral evidence of this spillover occurred in late 2025. On December 15, Turkish F-16s were forced to scramble and intercept an unidentified UAV that had penetrated deep into Turkish airspace, flying over central Anatolia before being neutralized near Ankara.

While the origin was initially obscured, subsequent findings linked the wreckage to Russian-made systems, specifically the Orlan-10 -- a reconnaissance drone frequently used by Moscow’s forces.

This was not an isolated incident. Days later, another Russian-origin drone crashed near the industrial hub of Izmit, just 30 km south of the Black Sea coast.

These incursions represent more than technical malfunctions; they are a direct consequence of Russia’s indiscriminate use of low-cost, unproven, or "out-of-control" technology.

By deploying swarms of loitering munitions and surveillance drones with unreliable command-and-control links, Russia has effectively turned the Black Sea into a laboratory for asymmetric provocation, forcing NATO members like Turkey to burn through expensive interceptor missiles to counter "trash" targets.

Malign influence

Russia’s malign behavior extends beyond accidental airspace violations. Moscow has increasingly used the Black Sea -- and the Turkish coast -- as a shield for its "shadow fleet." These tankers, often operating with obscured ownership and disabled transponders, circumvent international sanctions to fund the Kremlin's war machine.

The spillover turned kinetic when Ukrainian maritime and aerial drones began targeting these vessels near Turkish waters. In December 2025, a Russian-linked tanker was struck in the Mediterranean, a significant geographic expansion of the conflict.

By utilizing Turkish proximity to protect its illicit trade, Russia intentionally places Turkish maritime security at risk, gambling that Ankara's desire for regional "equilibrium" will prevent a forceful crackdown on these hazardous vessels.

Industrial warfare

Turkey's role is uniquely complicated by its status as a global drone superpower. The Bayraktar TB2 became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the early days of the invasion, a fact that has made Turkey a target of persistent Russian diplomatic and kinetic hostility.

Russia's efforts to undermine Turkey in this regard include:

Direct Strikes: In late 2025, Russian missiles targeted and destroyed a Baykar drone production facility under construction in Ukraine, a project aimed at deepening the Ankara-Kyiv strategic partnership.

Asymmetric Testing: Experts suggest the recent drone incursions into Turkey may be a "low-intensity strategic probe" by Moscow to test the limits of Turkey’s air defense readiness and its political resolve.

Disinformation: Russian state media frequently frames Turkish drone exports as "destabilizing," despite Russia's own reliance on Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones to terrorize Ukrainian civilian centers.

Sovereignty under pressure

The impact on Turkey is multi-layered. Economically, the war has accelerated Turkey's defense exports, with firms like Baykar now leading the global market.

However, this success comes at a steep security cost. Turkey is no longer just a mediator; it is a frontline state facing a neighbor that views international borders -- and the safety of civilian airspace -- as secondary to its imperial ambitions.

Russia's willingness to allow "out-of-control" drones to drift into NATO territory is a calculated form of gray-zone warfare. As the debris of Russian drones is cleared from the hills of Anatolia, it becomes clear that the "bleed over" is not a byproduct of war, but a tool of Russian foreign policy designed to pressure Turkey into abandoning its support for Ukraine.

For Ankara, the challenge is no longer just maintaining a "balancing act," but defending its sovereign skies against a neighbor that respects no limits.